State of the climate

Catallaxy Files (Australia)
"Today the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO released a six page document purporting to provide more evidence that climate change is to inflict damage on Australia.

The first four pages show some trends from 1960 to 2009. The fifth page shows trends in global CO2 concentrations (over different periods).

The final page shows a giant leap in logic (or rather, absence of logic) by asserting:

* Australia will be hotter in coming decades;
* much of Australia will be drier in coming decades;
* it is very likely that human activities have caused most of the global warming observed since 1950; and
* climate change is real.

I need make only three points. First, past trends are not evidence of the future. Second, correlation is not necessarily causation. And finally, the data just shows that the climate fluctuated between 1960 and 2009. That doesn’t prove that “climate change is real” for all periods.

I am distressed that these two once august institutions are willing to compromise their integrity to push a political point – AGW."