Tuesday, 29 October 2013

IPCC Adjusts Model-Predicted Near-Term Warming Downwards

WUWT
"This is another post that illustrates and discusses just how poorly climate models simulate one of the most important climate variables: global surface temperatures. .....The answer to both questions is, the CLIMATE MODELS CANNOT SIMULATE the multidecadal variations that exist in the surface temperature record....
And it’s well known by the public that the models used by the IPCC are tuned to the upswing that started in the mid-1970s (see Mauritsen, et al. (2012) Tuning the Climate of a Global Model [paywalled]. A preprint edition is here.), while failing to consider the impacts of naturally occurring multidecadal periods of no warming on their long-term (to 2100) prognostications.
Last, as far as I know, the IPCC did not lower their long-term prognostications based on their lower short-term predictions."

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