Christopher Booker, Telegraph
We are familiar with how consistently the Met Office has, in recent years,
been getting its seasonal and medium-term weather forecasts so spectacularly
wrong. We recall that soaking “barbecue summer” of 2009; their “warmer than
average” December 2010, which turned out to be the coldest on record; last
year’s “drier than average winter”, which led to the wettest January ever;
and many more.......
One reason this is significant, as I noted last year, is that it yet again
confirms how seriously the Hadley Centre’s forecasting strategy has been
skewed – by the way its computer models are programmed to assume that a
steady rise in CO2 levels must inevitably lead to rising temperatures. This
is the core reason why it has been getting all those forecasts of “hotter
summers” and “drier winters” so dismally wrong.
A second point of concern is that the same unquestioned assumption has been
allowed damagingly to reshape the energy policy of so many governments,
above all our own. Yet, such is the power of group-think, not one of our
leading politicians, from Barack (“the science is settled”) Obama down, has
had the independence of mind to question that flawed assumption.
A third lesson that might emerge from this is that we should recognise that
the Met Office’s blind acceptance of this scientific error has – in view of
the disastrous influence it exerts on public policy – become a national
scandal. In that popular buzz-phrase, the Met Office, for which we pay £200
million a year, has shown itself to be “not fit for purpose”. Yet never, by
politicians or even the media, has there been any proper attempt to call it
to account."
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