JoNova (Australia)
Which causes more summer heatwaves: carbon dioxide or Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) adjustments?
Ken Stewart has analyzed the adjustments
used to create the all-new ACORN wonder dataset and compared them with
another BOM dataset called AWAP, and finds, extraordinarily, that the
trend in average summer maximums has been tripled by adjustments that the BOM imply are neutral.
Since summer maxima are the ones used to generate the most headlines
in Australia, I ask again if the Bureau of Meteorology is a scientific
agency or a PR group? Increasing the trend in summer maxima would
produce more headlines of hottest ever month, season, heatwave, and
weekend.
In this graph Stewart splits the data into months, and compares the
trends in maxima in the AWAP and ACORN datasets, across the entire
nation. We see that most of the adjustments happen to data from the
hottest months of the year, October to March. Even though the measured
maxima in February and March are possibly cooler now than they were in the early 1900s, they have been adjusted to show warming trends.
When was the last time you heard the BOM tell you that their “hottest
ever” February record depended on adjusting down the past hotter
records? ......We might be worried about “two degrees of warming” but people living in 1926 got two degrees of cooling some 88 years after the fact."
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