Friday, 19 June 2015

Gavin Denies The Pause

Paul Homewood 
As he well knows, this has nothing to do with “a change to the long term trends”. If I was born in 1979 and grew till I was 19 years old, would that mean that I was simply growing more slowly now?
Even the UK Met Office acknowledged the pause in July 2013:
The start of the current pause is difficult to determine precisely. Although 1998 is often quoted as the start of the current pause, this was an exceptionally warm year because of the largest El Niño in the instrumental record. This was followed by a strong La Niña event and a fall in global surface temperature of around 0.2oC (Figure 1), equivalent in magnitude to the average decadal warming trend in recent decades. It is only really since 2000 that the rise in global surface temperatures has paused.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/0/Paper2_recent_pause_in_global_warming.PDF

Certainly the pause is still a short term phenomena (though getting close to a significant length of time according to Phil Jones!) But so, of course, was the 19 years of warming seen previously. "
 

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