WUWT
No computer model has ever been validated. An early draft of
Climate Change 95 had a Chapter titled “Climate Models – Validation” as a
response to my comment that no model has ever been validated. They
changed the title to “Climate Model – Evaluation” and changed the word
“validation” in the text to “evaluation” no less than describing what
might need to be done in order to validate a model.
Without a successful validation procedure, no model should be
considered to be capable of providing a plausible prediction of future
behaviour of the climate."
Fudging To Assure Reliability Masquerading As Validation
Attempts at validation during the 120 years of the instrumental
period also proved problematic for the same reasons as for the
historical record. A major challenge was the cooling period from 1940 to
1980 because it coincided with the greatest increase in human
production of CO2. This contradicted the most basic assumption of the
AGW hypothesis that a CO2 increase caused a temperature increase.
Freeman Dyson described the practice, generally described as “tweaking”,
and discussed in several WUWT articles. It is the practice of covering up and making up evidence designed to maintain the lies that are the computer models.
They sought an explanation in keeping with their philosophy that any
anomaly, or now a disruption, is, by default, due to humans. They
tweaked the model with human sourced sulfate, a particulate that blocks
sunlight and produces cooling. They applied it until the model output
matched the temperature curve. The problem was after 1980 warming began
again, but sulfate levels continued. Everything they do suffers from the
T. H. Huxley truth; “The great tragedy of science, the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.”
As Gray explained,
Instead of validation, and the traditional use of mathematical
statistics, the models are “evaluated” purely from the opinion of those
who have devised them. Such opinions are partisan and biased. They are
also nothing more than guesses."
No comments:
Post a Comment