Donna Laframboise
"..Personally, I’ve had it up to here with scientists who sneak their political views into the conversation beneath their lab coats. We need clarity about where an individual’s scientific expertise begins and ends. Scientists owe us professional, circumspect information – not political opinions masquerading as scientific fact.
So the next time you hear a glacier specialist declare that the debate is over remember that the same Syed Iqbal Hasnain who expressed such strong political opinions appears to have been startlingly ill-informed regarding the glaciers about which we’re told he’s an expert.
And the next time you hear a climate modeler talk about specific measures that must be adopted in order to avert calamity remember exactly what his job is. It’s to program a computer with hundreds of assumptions about the natural world – in other words, educated guesses. It’s then to produce “story lines” and “projections” about what the future might look like in the unlikely event that most of those educated guesses hit the bullseye."
Thursday, 16 September 2010
It is Not About Science, but Values
Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog
"A really interesting new study is published this week in the Journal of Risk Research that seeks to explain why it is that on highly politicized issues the public does not uniformly defer to the views of scientific experts, even when those experts are largely in consensus. The answer is not that one group in society is "anti-science," but rather that people tend to weight evidence and experts differently based on cultural considerations. ......This helps to explain why efforts to enforce a rigid consensus of views in climate policy have back-fired so strongly among many in the so-called skeptical community. The more that a consensus is invoked and the narrower it is defined, the more it puts off the very people that those seeking to share scientific knowledge should be trying to communicate with, the unconvinced. Denigrating one's cultural or political opponents may feel satisfying, but it is not a good strategy for getting them to accept that your views are sound. Thus, open, transparent and diverse expert advisory processes are more likely to be generally viewed as legitimate and robust."
"A really interesting new study is published this week in the Journal of Risk Research that seeks to explain why it is that on highly politicized issues the public does not uniformly defer to the views of scientific experts, even when those experts are largely in consensus. The answer is not that one group in society is "anti-science," but rather that people tend to weight evidence and experts differently based on cultural considerations. ......This helps to explain why efforts to enforce a rigid consensus of views in climate policy have back-fired so strongly among many in the so-called skeptical community. The more that a consensus is invoked and the narrower it is defined, the more it puts off the very people that those seeking to share scientific knowledge should be trying to communicate with, the unconvinced. Denigrating one's cultural or political opponents may feel satisfying, but it is not a good strategy for getting them to accept that your views are sound. Thus, open, transparent and diverse expert advisory processes are more likely to be generally viewed as legitimate and robust."
The real reasons why one billion go hungry: wind farms, biofuels, sustainability…
Telegraph
" According to FAO last year (PDF), one primary reason was the cost of fuel:
Given the increased importance of biofuels and the new linkages between agricultural and energy markets, increased cereal yields, if achieved, may not necessarily continue to lead to lower cereal prices. Because the world energy market is so much larger than the world grain market, grain prices may be determined by oil prices in the energy market as opposed to being determined by grain supply.Thus, higher priced energy means more hungry people."
" According to FAO last year (PDF), one primary reason was the cost of fuel:
Given the increased importance of biofuels and the new linkages between agricultural and energy markets, increased cereal yields, if achieved, may not necessarily continue to lead to lower cereal prices. Because the world energy market is so much larger than the world grain market, grain prices may be determined by oil prices in the energy market as opposed to being determined by grain supply.Thus, higher priced energy means more hungry people."
Wednesday, 15 September 2010
The cognitive dissonance of AGW
The Hockey Schtick
"There is a large cognitive dissonance required to be a true AGW believer, hence the comparison to religious beliefs. Take, for instance, the ability to simultaneously acknowledge that CO2 levels have been 10 to 20 times higher than the present during multiple periods of Earth's history without causing a 'tipping point' of no return, while retaining the belief that CO2 levels 10 to 20 times less are causing a 'tipping point' now. In fact, an entire ice age came and went with CO2 levels about 11 times higher than the present throughout the Ordovician period shown in the graphic below. The latest eco-scare-alert notes that Antarctica abruptly transitioned from a warm, subtropical hothouse to the present solid ice sheet during a period when CO2 levels exceeded those of today by 10 times."
"There is a large cognitive dissonance required to be a true AGW believer, hence the comparison to religious beliefs. Take, for instance, the ability to simultaneously acknowledge that CO2 levels have been 10 to 20 times higher than the present during multiple periods of Earth's history without causing a 'tipping point' of no return, while retaining the belief that CO2 levels 10 to 20 times less are causing a 'tipping point' now. In fact, an entire ice age came and went with CO2 levels about 11 times higher than the present throughout the Ordovician period shown in the graphic below. The latest eco-scare-alert notes that Antarctica abruptly transitioned from a warm, subtropical hothouse to the present solid ice sheet during a period when CO2 levels exceeded those of today by 10 times."
Massive storm set to hit NZ tomorrow
NZ Herald
"One of the largest storms on the planet is forecast to bring heavy rain and snow to much of the country from tomorrow.While the storm, the size of Australia, was likely to remain at least 1000km south of New Zealand it was still expected to bring winds strong enough to bring down trees, power lines and even damage poorly built roofs in some areas, Phillip Duncan, head weather analyst for Weatherwatch.co.nz, said.Blustery conditions would affect the entire North Island with severe gales likely about Wellington, Wairarapa and the tops of ranges, Mr Duncan said.Strong winds would make driving much more difficult, especially for motorbikes, vans, trucks and other high-sided vehicles.Heavy rain was expected for all western regions from Fiordland to Waikato starting tomorrow, with a number of fronts lasting until the weekend. ...Southland and Otago could expect heavy snow with a southerly change coming directly off the Antarctic shelf during Friday and Saturday."
--------------------------
Tasman storm gathering momentum
"One of the largest storms on the planet is forecast to bring heavy rain and snow to much of the country from tomorrow.While the storm, the size of Australia, was likely to remain at least 1000km south of New Zealand it was still expected to bring winds strong enough to bring down trees, power lines and even damage poorly built roofs in some areas, Phillip Duncan, head weather analyst for Weatherwatch.co.nz, said.Blustery conditions would affect the entire North Island with severe gales likely about Wellington, Wairarapa and the tops of ranges, Mr Duncan said.Strong winds would make driving much more difficult, especially for motorbikes, vans, trucks and other high-sided vehicles.Heavy rain was expected for all western regions from Fiordland to Waikato starting tomorrow, with a number of fronts lasting until the weekend. ...Southland and Otago could expect heavy snow with a southerly change coming directly off the Antarctic shelf during Friday and Saturday."
--------------------------
Tasman storm gathering momentum
Tuesday, 14 September 2010
The Shoddy Climategate Inquiries
Donna Laframboise
"Andrew Montford is the author of The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science. If you’re looking for one volume during the upcoming holiday season to share with friends who haven’t been following matters closely, it’s a great choice. No one with an open mind can read that book and not conclude there’s something seriously amiss in climate science."
"Andrew Montford is the author of The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science. If you’re looking for one volume during the upcoming holiday season to share with friends who haven’t been following matters closely, it’s a great choice. No one with an open mind can read that book and not conclude there’s something seriously amiss in climate science."
Climategate whitewashers squirm like maggots on Bishop Hill's pin
Telegraph
"The official inquiries, as we know, found nothing untoward in any of the Climategate emails – nor in the behaviour of the scientists responsible for them. But the GWPF’s report, by Andrew “Bishop Hill” Montford, begs to differ. At the conference, one journalist asked Montford to try to summarise the juiciest of his allegations. Montford found this difficult: so many and varied are the failings of the three whitewash inquiries, he simply couldn’t decide which ones to choose."
"The official inquiries, as we know, found nothing untoward in any of the Climategate emails – nor in the behaviour of the scientists responsible for them. But the GWPF’s report, by Andrew “Bishop Hill” Montford, begs to differ. At the conference, one journalist asked Montford to try to summarise the juiciest of his allegations. Montford found this difficult: so many and varied are the failings of the three whitewash inquiries, he simply couldn’t decide which ones to choose."
Adjusting the temperature down under
WUWT
"Ken Stewart has been hard at work again, this time analyzing the Australian urban records. While he expected that the cities and towns would show a larger rise than records in the country due to the Urban Heat Island Effect, what he found was that the raw records showed only a 0.4 degree rise, less than the rural records which went from a raw 0.6 to an adjusted 0.85 (a rise of 40%). What shocked him about the urban records were the adjustments… making the trend a full 70% warmer."
"Ken Stewart has been hard at work again, this time analyzing the Australian urban records. While he expected that the cities and towns would show a larger rise than records in the country due to the Urban Heat Island Effect, what he found was that the raw records showed only a 0.4 degree rise, less than the rural records which went from a raw 0.6 to an adjusted 0.85 (a rise of 40%). What shocked him about the urban records were the adjustments… making the trend a full 70% warmer."
Mafia arrests reveal mob was 'going green'
Telegraph
"Police in Italy have seized Mafia-linked assets worth $1.9 billion – the biggest mob haul ever – in an operation revealing that the crime group was trying to "go green" by laundering money through alternative energy companies. "
"Police in Italy have seized Mafia-linked assets worth $1.9 billion – the biggest mob haul ever – in an operation revealing that the crime group was trying to "go green" by laundering money through alternative energy companies. "
Damning new investigation into Climategate inquiries
WUWT
"In particular, the report finds that:
* none of the Climategate panels mounted an inquiry that was comprehensive within their area of remit
* insufficient consideration in the choice of panel members led to a failure to ensure balance and independence
* none managed to be objective and comprehensive
* none made any serious attempt to consider the views and submissions of well-informed critics
* terms of reference were either vague or non-existent
* none of them performed their work in a way that is likely to restore confidence in the work of CRU."
"In particular, the report finds that:
* none of the Climategate panels mounted an inquiry that was comprehensive within their area of remit
* insufficient consideration in the choice of panel members led to a failure to ensure balance and independence
* none managed to be objective and comprehensive
* none made any serious attempt to consider the views and submissions of well-informed critics
* terms of reference were either vague or non-existent
* none of them performed their work in a way that is likely to restore confidence in the work of CRU."
Combat climate change with less gassy diet for cows: study
Independent
"Climate change can be curbed by changing the diet of livestock, whose feed crops, farting, belching and manure contribute a fifth of the planet's greenhouse gas emissions, a new study said Friday.The study by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) said livestock risk growing as global demand for meat and milk surges and recommended simple steps to curb livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions."
"Climate change can be curbed by changing the diet of livestock, whose feed crops, farting, belching and manure contribute a fifth of the planet's greenhouse gas emissions, a new study said Friday.The study by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) said livestock risk growing as global demand for meat and milk surges and recommended simple steps to curb livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions."
Ed: No, this is true, too far from April 1st...
Monday, 13 September 2010
Coal has a Future in Australia
Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog
"..It is a simple mathematical reality that Australia cannot meet even the least ambitious targets for emissions reductions with coal having today's share in Australia's energy mix (of consumption plus exports, see figure above) -- unless CCS is perfected. Eventually, something will have to give here -- coal, CPRS, Labor, Greens or Combet. Time will tell which it is. "
"..It is a simple mathematical reality that Australia cannot meet even the least ambitious targets for emissions reductions with coal having today's share in Australia's energy mix (of consumption plus exports, see figure above) -- unless CCS is perfected. Eventually, something will have to give here -- coal, CPRS, Labor, Greens or Combet. Time will tell which it is. "
Sunday, 12 September 2010
Britain must adapt to 'inevitable' climate change, warns minister
Independent
"Britons must radically change the way they live and work to adapt to being "stuck with unavoidable climate change" the Government will caution this week, as it unveils a dramatic vision of how society will be altered by floods, droughts and rising temperatures. ..."
Paper: Global Warming analogous to many prior False Alarms (The Hockey Schtick)
"A paper in process examines the global warming alarmist movement and finds 26 other analogous false alarms that were endorsed by scientists, politicians, and the media. In each case, the analogous alarms were presented as “scientific,” but none were based on scientific forecasting procedures. Every alarming forecast proved to be false; the predicted adverse effects either did not occur or were minor. However, costly government policies remained in place long after the predicted disasters failed to materialize. The authors find the current global warming alarm is simply the latest example of a common social phenomenon: an alarm based on unscientific forecasts of a calamity. They conclude that the global warming alarm will fade, but not before much additional harm is done by governments and individuals making inferior decisions on the basis of unscientific forecasts. "
"Britons must radically change the way they live and work to adapt to being "stuck with unavoidable climate change" the Government will caution this week, as it unveils a dramatic vision of how society will be altered by floods, droughts and rising temperatures. ..."
ED: Political propaganda to enforce 'carbon tax', I think we can see that, don't you ?
-----------------------------Paper: Global Warming analogous to many prior False Alarms (The Hockey Schtick)
"A paper in process examines the global warming alarmist movement and finds 26 other analogous false alarms that were endorsed by scientists, politicians, and the media. In each case, the analogous alarms were presented as “scientific,” but none were based on scientific forecasting procedures. Every alarming forecast proved to be false; the predicted adverse effects either did not occur or were minor. However, costly government policies remained in place long after the predicted disasters failed to materialize. The authors find the current global warming alarm is simply the latest example of a common social phenomenon: an alarm based on unscientific forecasts of a calamity. They conclude that the global warming alarm will fade, but not before much additional harm is done by governments and individuals making inferior decisions on the basis of unscientific forecasts. "
Saturday, 11 September 2010
The truth is getting lost in the Amazon
A warmist coup seems to have taken place on Amazon, the online bookseller, writes Christopher Booker. (Telegraph)
"The proselytisers for man-made global warming have long exercised a tight stranglehold over the contents of Wikipedia. The editors of that online source of all knowledge are ready with lightning speed to ensure that its entries related to climate change are purged of any hint of dissent from the party line – and that entries for “climate sceptics” are given a viciously dismissive twist, Now it seems a similar coup has taken place on Amazon, the online outlet which is Britain’s largest bookseller.
Over the past year, Amazon’s list of global-warming bestsellers has been wholly dominated by sceptics, with my own book The Real Global Warming Disaster standing for months at number one. At the end of last month, however, all the more recent sceptical books were suddenly removed from the list. My own volume, Andrew Montford’s The Hockey Stick Illusion, Bob Carter’s Climate: The Counter Consensus and others have all vanished from the list, so that it is now dominated by titles pushing the prescribed pro-warming line. "
"The proselytisers for man-made global warming have long exercised a tight stranglehold over the contents of Wikipedia. The editors of that online source of all knowledge are ready with lightning speed to ensure that its entries related to climate change are purged of any hint of dissent from the party line – and that entries for “climate sceptics” are given a viciously dismissive twist, Now it seems a similar coup has taken place on Amazon, the online outlet which is Britain’s largest bookseller.
Over the past year, Amazon’s list of global-warming bestsellers has been wholly dominated by sceptics, with my own book The Real Global Warming Disaster standing for months at number one. At the end of last month, however, all the more recent sceptical books were suddenly removed from the list. My own volume, Andrew Montford’s The Hockey Stick Illusion, Bob Carter’s Climate: The Counter Consensus and others have all vanished from the list, so that it is now dominated by titles pushing the prescribed pro-warming line. "
Friday, 10 September 2010
More Oxburgh Misrepresentations
Climate Audit
"Almost none of Oxburgh’s testimony to the Science and technology Committee can be taken at face value. Even on something as simple as climate background of Lisa Graumlich and Kerry Emanuel, Oxburgh’s statements to the committee were untrue. ....But that’s a different point than the one here – Oxburgh’s untrue statements to the Committee about Graumlich and Emanuel. It’s hard to believe that Oxburgh was so ignorant that he really thought that Graumlich did archaeological chronologies and Emanuel did meteorology. But that’s what he told the Committee."
"Almost none of Oxburgh’s testimony to the Science and technology Committee can be taken at face value. Even on something as simple as climate background of Lisa Graumlich and Kerry Emanuel, Oxburgh’s statements to the committee were untrue. ....But that’s a different point than the one here – Oxburgh’s untrue statements to the Committee about Graumlich and Emanuel. It’s hard to believe that Oxburgh was so ignorant that he really thought that Graumlich did archaeological chronologies and Emanuel did meteorology. But that’s what he told the Committee."
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