Apply official WMO methods, warming shrinks massively: The Register
"If new techniques endorsed by the World Meteorological Organisation are applied to official figures, over half of the global warming reported by US land-based thermometers between 1979 and 2008 simply disappears, researchers have found. ....Yet it has been left to a group largely outside the climate establishment to first do the field work and then the maths, and apply the new metric to the data. The official agencies and climate academics have been able (some would say, required) to use the latest WMO-endorsed categorisation method for 18 months, but have failed to do so.
Enter Watts et al
The new paper is co-authored by TV weatherman and blogger Anthony Watts, the Climate Audit blog's Evan Jones and Stephen McIntyre, and Dr John Christy from the Department of Atmospheric Science at the University of Alabama, Huntsville. Only Christy, who maintains the US satellite temperature monitoring network, can be considered part of the scientific climatology establishment. ......Strikingly, NOAA's reliance on low-quality thermometers is made clear when airport stations are examined. The WMO's new classification scheme means 601 of 727 airports examined in the sample are non-compliant and low quality: ......The Watts work has significant implications. For example, work by climate activist and scientist James Hansen, who has overseen the NASA global temperature record's major increases, and Richard Muller's recent BEST programme - much in the news lately owing to his putative status as a "convert" to climate alarmism - use cruder station classification systems. Their statistical methods may be unimpeachable, but it now appears that they are using unreliable data sets."
Tuesday, 31 July 2012
Monday, 30 July 2012
Global Warming? Yeah, right
Telegraph
"Have a look at this chart. It tells you pretty much all you need to know about the much-anticipated scoop by Anthony Watts of Watts Up With That? What it means, in a nutshell, is that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – the US government body in charge of America's temperature record, has systematically exaggerated the extent of late 20th century global warming. In fact, it has doubled it. ........What Watts has conclusively demonstrated is that most of the weather stations in the US are so poorly sited that their temperature data is unreliable. Around 90 per cent have had their temperature readings skewed by the Urban Heat Island effect. While he has suspected this for some time what he has been unable to do until his latest, landmark paper (co-authored with Evan Jones of New York, Stephen McIntyre of Toronto, Canada, and Dr. John R. Christy from the Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama, Huntsville) is to put precise figures on the degree of distortion involved. ........"
"Have a look at this chart. It tells you pretty much all you need to know about the much-anticipated scoop by Anthony Watts of Watts Up With That? What it means, in a nutshell, is that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – the US government body in charge of America's temperature record, has systematically exaggerated the extent of late 20th century global warming. In fact, it has doubled it. ........What Watts has conclusively demonstrated is that most of the weather stations in the US are so poorly sited that their temperature data is unreliable. Around 90 per cent have had their temperature readings skewed by the Urban Heat Island effect. While he has suspected this for some time what he has been unable to do until his latest, landmark paper (co-authored with Evan Jones of New York, Stephen McIntyre of Toronto, Canada, and Dr. John R. Christy from the Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama, Huntsville) is to put precise figures on the degree of distortion involved. ........"
Sunday, 29 July 2012
Anthony Watts delivers devastating scientific blow to Muller's claims: 'New analysis demonstrates that reported 1979-2008 U.S. temp trends are spuriously doubled'
WUWT
"A reanalysis of U.S. surface station temperatures has been performed using the recently WMO-approved Siting Classification System devised by METEO-France’s Michel Leroy. The new siting classification more accurately characterizes the quality of the location in terms of monitoring long-term spatially representative surface temperature trends. The new analysis demonstrates that reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled, with 92% of that over-estimation resulting from erroneous NOAA adjustments of well-sited stations upward. The paper is the first to use the updated siting system which addresses USHCN siting issues and data adjustments.
The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data. This issue of station siting quality is expected to be an issue with respect to the monitoring of land surface temperature throughout the Global Historical Climate Network and in the BEST network."
"A reanalysis of U.S. surface station temperatures has been performed using the recently WMO-approved Siting Classification System devised by METEO-France’s Michel Leroy. The new siting classification more accurately characterizes the quality of the location in terms of monitoring long-term spatially representative surface temperature trends. The new analysis demonstrates that reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled, with 92% of that over-estimation resulting from erroneous NOAA adjustments of well-sited stations upward. The paper is the first to use the updated siting system which addresses USHCN siting issues and data adjustments.
The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data. This issue of station siting quality is expected to be an issue with respect to the monitoring of land surface temperature throughout the Global Historical Climate Network and in the BEST network."
Massive Human CO2 Emissions Still Unable To Reverse Nature's Global Cooling Over Last 15 Years
GWPF
"This extended 180-month period of non-warming was not predicted by a single global climate model - nada, zilch, zero. The IPCC's climate models obviously have very serious, fundamental issues that can't just be 'tweaked' away."
"This extended 180-month period of non-warming was not predicted by a single global climate model - nada, zilch, zero. The IPCC's climate models obviously have very serious, fundamental issues that can't just be 'tweaked' away."
Saturday, 28 July 2012
Greenland’s ice cap was on the brink of melting… for a few hours
Christopher Booker,Telegraph
" Nothing could have better demonstrated the desperate straits to which global warmists have been driven as they try to keep their scare going than two satellite pictures in last Tuesday’s Guardian, showing a change that had come over the Greenland ice cap. One showed, in white, the second-largest mass of land ice on the planet, seemingly intact. The other, taken a few days later, showed in pink a seemingly ubiquitous melting. These Nasa pictures, we were told, showed alarmingly that, for the first time in history, the surface ice was melting right across Greenland. It took only hours for this scare story to be blown apart.
A tiny rise in air temperatures had momentarily taken them just above freezing, enough to melt a few inches of surface ice. But the ice below it, up to two miles deep, had been unaffected. This had happened before, in 1889. Ice cores show that it happens every 150 years or so. Within hours, as even the BBC admitted, the ice had frozen again. The shortest scare in history was over."
" Nothing could have better demonstrated the desperate straits to which global warmists have been driven as they try to keep their scare going than two satellite pictures in last Tuesday’s Guardian, showing a change that had come over the Greenland ice cap. One showed, in white, the second-largest mass of land ice on the planet, seemingly intact. The other, taken a few days later, showed in pink a seemingly ubiquitous melting. These Nasa pictures, we were told, showed alarmingly that, for the first time in history, the surface ice was melting right across Greenland. It took only hours for this scare story to be blown apart.
A tiny rise in air temperatures had momentarily taken them just above freezing, enough to melt a few inches of surface ice. But the ice below it, up to two miles deep, had been unaffected. This had happened before, in 1889. Ice cores show that it happens every 150 years or so. Within hours, as even the BBC admitted, the ice had frozen again. The shortest scare in history was over."
The Government plans to break its own climate change law
Christopher Booker,Telegraph
"It is not often our Government lets on that it is intending to commit a very serious breach of the law – even if it does so in such opaque fashion that it hopes no one will notice. But that is what we can read between the lines of last week’s statement by Ed Davey, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, which revealed just what a catastrophic shambles he is making of Britain’s energy policy. .....So what we see emerging here for the first time is an official admission that, in order to keep our lights on and our economy running, we have no alternative but to rely massively on fossil-fuel gas, which will drive a coach and horses through the Climate Change Act’s target of an 80 per cent emissions cut. .....One day we will have our shale gas and we will see the Climate Change Act repealed. These things will happen because the penny is finally dropping that the only alternative is economic suicide. But as yet, our politicians are unable to admit openly the enormity of the mess they have landed us in."
"It is not often our Government lets on that it is intending to commit a very serious breach of the law – even if it does so in such opaque fashion that it hopes no one will notice. But that is what we can read between the lines of last week’s statement by Ed Davey, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, which revealed just what a catastrophic shambles he is making of Britain’s energy policy. .....So what we see emerging here for the first time is an official admission that, in order to keep our lights on and our economy running, we have no alternative but to rely massively on fossil-fuel gas, which will drive a coach and horses through the Climate Change Act’s target of an 80 per cent emissions cut. .....One day we will have our shale gas and we will see the Climate Change Act repealed. These things will happen because the penny is finally dropping that the only alternative is economic suicide. But as yet, our politicians are unable to admit openly the enormity of the mess they have landed us in."
A global warming skeptic who's a lot smarter than Al Gore
NJ.com
"Ever since the 1980s one of my favorite authors in the realm of science has been Freeman Dyson. ....... The Princeton physicist has written books on a wide range of topic, from the potential perils of nuclear weapons to discoveries in the human genome. .....Here's a great magazine piece that gives an in-depth look at Dyson and how he views the problem. An excerpt: “The climate-studies people who work with models always tend to overestimate their models,” Dyson was saying. “There's a great magazine piece that gives an in-depth look at Dyson and how he views the problem. An excerpt: “The climate-studies people who work with models always tend to overestimate their models,” Dyson was saying. “They come to believe models are real and forget they are only models.” Dyson speaks in calm, clear tones that carry simultaneous evidence of his English childhood, the move to the United States after completing his university studies at Cambridge and more than 50 years of marriage to the German-born Imme, but his opinions can be barbed, especially when a conversation turns to climate change. Climate models, he says, take into account atmospheric motion and water levels but have no feeling for the chemistry and biology of sky, soil and trees. “The biologists have essentially been pushed aside,” he continues. “Al Gore’s just an opportunist. The person who is really responsible for this overestimate of global warming is Jim Hansen. He consistently exaggerates all the dangers.” (h/t Climate Depot)
"Ever since the 1980s one of my favorite authors in the realm of science has been Freeman Dyson. ....... The Princeton physicist has written books on a wide range of topic, from the potential perils of nuclear weapons to discoveries in the human genome. .....Here's a great magazine piece that gives an in-depth look at Dyson and how he views the problem. An excerpt: “The climate-studies people who work with models always tend to overestimate their models,” Dyson was saying. “There's a great magazine piece that gives an in-depth look at Dyson and how he views the problem. An excerpt: “The climate-studies people who work with models always tend to overestimate their models,” Dyson was saying. “They come to believe models are real and forget they are only models.” Dyson speaks in calm, clear tones that carry simultaneous evidence of his English childhood, the move to the United States after completing his university studies at Cambridge and more than 50 years of marriage to the German-born Imme, but his opinions can be barbed, especially when a conversation turns to climate change. Climate models, he says, take into account atmospheric motion and water levels but have no feeling for the chemistry and biology of sky, soil and trees. “The biologists have essentially been pushed aside,” he continues. “Al Gore’s just an opportunist. The person who is really responsible for this overestimate of global warming is Jim Hansen. He consistently exaggerates all the dangers.” (h/t Climate Depot)
Thursday, 26 July 2012
Predictions By Climate Models Are Flawed, Lindzen Tells Sandia National Laboratories
GWPF
"For 30 years, climate scientists have been “locked into a simple-minded identification of climate with greenhouse-gas level. … That climate should be the function of a single parameter (like CO2) has always seemed implausible. Yet an obsessive focus on such an obvious oversimplification has likely set back progress by decades,” Lindzen said. For major climates of the past, other factors were more important than carbon dioxide."
"For 30 years, climate scientists have been “locked into a simple-minded identification of climate with greenhouse-gas level. … That climate should be the function of a single parameter (like CO2) has always seemed implausible. Yet an obsessive focus on such an obvious oversimplification has likely set back progress by decades,” Lindzen said. For major climates of the past, other factors were more important than carbon dioxide."
Extreme, Unusual Cold Deviation Of -20°K Now Occurring Over Antarctica
NoTricksZone
"For weeks I’ve been observing extreme, unusual deviations from the mean by as much as -20°K. Even in Australia it’s been too cold. What’s the reason for this cold over there, the powerful Antarctic polar circulation?"
"For weeks I’ve been observing extreme, unusual deviations from the mean by as much as -20°K. Even in Australia it’s been too cold. What’s the reason for this cold over there, the powerful Antarctic polar circulation?"
Wednesday, 25 July 2012
The dash for gas: Osborne puts faith in power stations as he cuts subsidies for wind farms and dismisses new carbon emission targets
Daily Mail
#Chancellor determined not to to commit Britain to climate targets beyond 2020
#Ministers to announce 10 per cent cut in wind farm subsidies and a review of planning rules
#Lib Dems agree gas-fired power stations will be key part of Britain's energy production well into 2030s
#Chancellor determined not to to commit Britain to climate targets beyond 2020
#Ministers to announce 10 per cent cut in wind farm subsidies and a review of planning rules
#Lib Dems agree gas-fired power stations will be key part of Britain's energy production well into 2030s
Tuesday, 24 July 2012
UK Chancellor Pledges To Give Communities Power To Block Wind Farms
GWPF
"George Osborne is planning new powers to allow communities to block wind turbines as the Coalition row over green energy targets escalates. Whitehall sources said the Chancellor was pushing for changes to the planning regime as part of a deal with the Liberal Democrats over the future of climate change policy. There are 3,800 wind turbines across the UK, but at least 10,000 had been expected to be built to help meet Britain’s pledge to cut carbon emissions to 50 per cent of 1990 levels by 2025. But more than 100 Conservative MPs have called for cuts in state subsidies for new turbines, and changes to planning rules to limit their construction."
"George Osborne is planning new powers to allow communities to block wind turbines as the Coalition row over green energy targets escalates. Whitehall sources said the Chancellor was pushing for changes to the planning regime as part of a deal with the Liberal Democrats over the future of climate change policy. There are 3,800 wind turbines across the UK, but at least 10,000 had been expected to be built to help meet Britain’s pledge to cut carbon emissions to 50 per cent of 1990 levels by 2025. But more than 100 Conservative MPs have called for cuts in state subsidies for new turbines, and changes to planning rules to limit their construction."
Monday, 23 July 2012
British Chancellor Demands End To Unilateral Climate & Renewables Targets
GWPF
"The Chancellor has demanded that the Energy Secretary Ed Davey abandon the UK's pathway towards climate targets. In a leaked letter, George Osborne says renewables are too expensive and suggests expanding plans for gas-fired generation. James Murray, editor of BusinessGreen.com said: "Make no mistake this is an all-out assault on the entire green energy sector."
"The Chancellor has demanded that the Energy Secretary Ed Davey abandon the UK's pathway towards climate targets. In a leaked letter, George Osborne says renewables are too expensive and suggests expanding plans for gas-fired generation. James Murray, editor of BusinessGreen.com said: "Make no mistake this is an all-out assault on the entire green energy sector."
New paper finds no change in W Mediterranean precipitation in 300 years, contrary to IPCC claims
The Hockey Schtick
"A paper published today in Climatic Change examines the 14 longest precipitation records in the Western Mediterranean and finds no significant change over the past 300 years. This finding is contrary to claims of the IPCC that anthropogenic global warming allegedly leads to a decrease in precipitation over "most of the Mediterranean area."
"A paper published today in Climatic Change examines the 14 longest precipitation records in the Western Mediterranean and finds no significant change over the past 300 years. This finding is contrary to claims of the IPCC that anthropogenic global warming allegedly leads to a decrease in precipitation over "most of the Mediterranean area."
Climate Modeling Failure: EU Research Confirms Major Fault In IPCC Models - Based On Incorrect Historical Record
C£ Headlines
"Climate modeling failure is unequivocal and ubiquitous for a multitude of reasons - a new study adds yet another reason as researchers determine the IPCC models incorrectly assume a historical polar amplification that did not happen..... Conclusions: Climate modeling failure is the rule rather than the exception. There are any number of significant reasons that IPCC models models are unable to successfully interpret the complexities of the real-world climate, leading to the plethora of inaccurate climate predictions. This newest research highlights the fact that climate model assumptions may be wrong. In this specific case, the climate models assumed a northern polar amplification of warming in the past that does not appear to have actually happened." (h/t Climate Depot)
"Climate modeling failure is unequivocal and ubiquitous for a multitude of reasons - a new study adds yet another reason as researchers determine the IPCC models incorrectly assume a historical polar amplification that did not happen..... Conclusions: Climate modeling failure is the rule rather than the exception. There are any number of significant reasons that IPCC models models are unable to successfully interpret the complexities of the real-world climate, leading to the plethora of inaccurate climate predictions. This newest research highlights the fact that climate model assumptions may be wrong. In this specific case, the climate models assumed a northern polar amplification of warming in the past that does not appear to have actually happened." (h/t Climate Depot)
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