"Carbon (Dioxide) trading is now the fastest growing commodities market on earth.....And here’s the great thing about it. Unlike traditional commodities markets, which will eventually involve delivery to someone in physical form, the carbon (dioxide) market is based on lack of delivery of an invisible substance to no-one. Since the market revolves around creating carbon (dioxide) credits, or finding carbon (dioxide) reduction projects whose benefits can then be sold to those with a surplus of emissions, it is entirely intangible." (Telegraph)
This blog has been tracking the 'Global Warming Scam' for over ten years now. There are a very large number of articles being published in blogs and more in the MSM who are waking up to the fact the public refuse to be conned any more and are objecting to the 'green madness' of governments and the artificially high price of energy. This blog will now be concentrating on the major stories as we move to the pragmatic view of 'not if, but when' and how the situation is managed back to reality. To quote Professor Lindzen, "a lot of people are going to look pretty silly"
PS: If you have arrived here on a page link, then click on the HOME link...
Monday, 31 December 2012
"For much of the world, 2012 is going out the way it came in, with a deadly cold wave, leaving hundreds dead in its wake. Here are but a few of the chilling headlines from across the globe: ..." (h/t Tom Nelson)
"And a project that involves the such can only be called one thing: really dumb. Before other countries dive into renewable energies, drunk on green fantasies, they should take a look at what is happening in Germany. Indeed, sobriety helps."
Sunday, 30 December 2012
Wind turbines 'last for half as long as previously thought' as study shows they show signs of wearing out after just 12 years
For onshore wind, the monthly ‘load factor’ of turbines – a measure of how much electricity they generate as a percentage of how much they could produce if on at full power all the time - dropped from a high of 24 per cent in the first year after construction, to just 11 per cent after 15 years.
For offshore wind –examined only in Denmark where it has been used for longer - it declined even more dramatically from over 40 per cent at the start, to just 15 per cent after ten years. He believes they become uneconomic after around 12 years. The decline in output was put down to wear and tear of the blades, and more frequent breakdowns for older turbines.
His report for the anti-wind farm charity the Renewable Energy Foundation (KEEP), noted: ‘Onshore wind turbines represent a relatively mature technology, which ought to have achieved a satisfactory level of reliability in operation as plants age. Unfortunately detailed analysis of the relationship between age and performance gives a rather different picture…’
Poland, Czech Republic To Block Out Germany’s Unstable Green Electricity – “Coal To Play A Major Role A Lot Longer”
" It seems that Eastern Europe has said “no” to hugely subsidized, unstable German green electricity flowing across the border into their power grids."
"Rural communities hit by proposed new wind farms, fracking sites and even nuclear power stations could receive millions of pounds in compensation from energy companies. Under a government plan, branded “bribes for blight” by critics, the payments would be used to cut local people’s energy bills, provide bursaries to pay their children’s university fees, build village halls and carry out home improvements.
The extra cost of the “community benefits” scheme would be passed on to customers through higher energy bills. The aim is to open up the countryside to developments including the 6,000 additional onshore wind turbines planned by the government." (h/t Tom Nelson)
"Using the Year-to-Date average Palmer Drought Severity Index, 2012 is just a blip in the last century, and hardly rates a mention. But that doesn’t fit Masters and McKibben’s ongoing gloom and doom meme, so they don’t want to look at it or show it to their followers. But wait, there’s more. ..."
1947 Shock News : “Enormous” “Alarming” “Serious” “Catastrophic” Polar Melt To Drown The Planet. International Agency Needed To Study The Problem
" Saturday 31 May 1947
Dr. Ahlmann added that temperatures in the Arctic have increased by 10 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900. An ‘enormous’ rise from the scientific standpoint. Waters in the Spitsbergen area, in the same period, have risen from three to five degrees in temperature, and one to one and a half millimetres yearly in level. ‘The Arctic change is so serious that I hope an international agency can speedily be formed to study conditions on a global basis.’ said Dr. Ahlmann. He pointed out that in 1910 the navigable season along the western Spitsbergen lasted three months. Now it lasts eight months." (h/t Climate Depot)
Saturday, 29 December 2012
" There could be few more apt epitaphs for the year now ending than a recollection of the headlines in April that greeted a stark warning from the Environment Agency. Fuelled by the predictions of the climate-change-obsessed Met Office (and the the official policy, since 2007, of the similarly fixated EU) that we will have “hotter, drier summers” for decades to come, the agency foretold that the drought conditions of the early spring were likely to last “until Christmas and perhaps beyond”. The prophecy was swiftly followed by the wettest late spring, the wettest summer, the wettest autumn and the wettest Christmas we have ever known – eight months of near-continuous rain and floods amounting to England’s wettest year since records began.
For many of the major stories which have long been followed by this column, 2012 has been the year when long-dominant belief systems and fondly held illusions have been conspicuously falling apart, portending a time of agonising reappraisal when familiar certainties give way to greater realism and painful rethinking. ......As the scientific case for man-made climate change fell apart, in a welter of scandals which showed how ruthlessly the evidence had been fudged and manipulated, the real global warming disaster, as I argued, was the political legacy it was leaving us with. No one had promoted this more zealously than the EU and the British government, whose Climate Change Act, approved almost unanimously by MPs, is by far the most costly law ever put through Parliament."
"Do you say that the above argument is simplistic? Yes, it is, but it may well be more realistic than the IPCC argument leading to a climate sensitivity probably inflated by a factor 10."
"So, what should we do about CO2 emissions? The answer is: nothing. The evidence that Co2 is harmful, that it is raising the earth’s temperature dramatically, has been largely fabricated, and at the least, overblown. Surprisingly, when all the facts are in, CO2 is beneficial! It is an essential trace gas, and a fertilizer. The current increase has boosted growth rates of vegetation worldwide by 13 to 15%"
"Unfortunately, too many politicians continue to use the storm to advance agendas, deflect blame for incompetence and mistakes, and obfuscate and magnify future risks from building and development projects that they have designed, promoted, permitted and profited from.
Sandy was “unprecedented,” the result of “weather on steroids,” various “experts” insist. “It’s global warming, stupid,” intoned Bloomberg BusinessWeek. “Anyone who says there is not a change in weather patterns is denying reality,” New York Governor Andrew Cuomo declared. We must protect the great NY metropolis from rising oceans, said the Washington Post. This storm should “compel all elected leaders to take immediate action” on climate change, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg pronounced.
Unfortunately for the politicians and spin-meisters, the facts do not support this obscene posturing.
North America’s northeastern coast has been battered by hurricanes and other major storms throughout history. A 1775 hurricane killed 4,000 people in Newfoundland; an 1873 monster left 600 dead in Nova Scotia; others pummeled Canada’s Maritime Provinces in 1866, 1886, 1893, 1939, 1959, 1963 and 2003.
Manhattan got pounded in 1667 and by the Great Storm of 1693. They were followed by more behemoths in 1788, 1821, 1893, 1944, 1954 and 1992. Other “confluences of severe weather events” brought killer storms like the four-day Great Blizzard of 1888. The 1893 storm largely eradicated Hog Island, and the 1938 “Long Island Express” hit LI as a category 3 hurricane with wind gusts up to 180 mph."
"According to Environment Canada, Montreal was covered by a record-breaking 47 centimetres of snow on Thursday. "It's a historical storm," said Réné Héroux from Environment Canada. "We've never had this much snow in a day. In 1971, there was a lot of snow, but it was over more than a day." The snowfall surpassed the previous daily record established in March 1971 by two centimetres." (h/t Tom Nelson)
Friday, 28 December 2012
Did EPA Chief Lisa Jackson resign because emails she sent from a secret alias account will go public next month?
"It was revealed in November that EPA Chief Lisa Jackson, 50, had sent thousands of emails tied to coal regulation from a secret alias account - The EPA chief announced on Thursday that she will resign after four years on the job for ‘new challenges, time with my family and new opportunities to make a difference’ - Chris Horner, of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said the scrutiny over the alias emails regarding the Obama administration's alleged ‘war on coal,’ is clearly a factor behind Jackson’s decision to step down - Jackson's resignation is effective following the President's State of the Union address next month"
" The EPA chief is among President Obama's most abusive and reckless regulators—his repressed green id. Over her four years, Ms. Jackson inflicted an unprecedented surge of new rules on private business, including the most expensive ever in the history of government by several orders of magnitude. A "major" regulation used to be defined as imposing costs of $100 million or more. The EPA now routinely issues multibillion-dollar rules with little more than a press release.
Ms. Jackson most notably cranked up clean-air regulation that will force a third or even as much as half of the U.S. coal-fired electric fleet out of existence. She also rewrote laws to declare carbon emissions a "dangerous pollutant" even though the laws were written in the 1970s. Along with other rules, including auto efficiency standards, she started a re-engineering of the U.S. energy system, without so much as a Congressional vote."
"EPA’s CO2 Regulations are NOT Based on Sound Science Bottom –Line: No scientist or team of scientists has come up with an empirically validated theory proving that higher Atmospheric CO2 Levels will lead to higher GAST–not EPA’s team and certainly not to the EPA’s 90-99% certainty. Moreover, if the causal link between higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations and higher GAST is broken by invalidating EPA’s Three LoE, then EPA’s claim that higher CO2 concentrations also cause sea level increases and more frequent and severe storms, floods and droughts is also disproved. Such causality claims require a validated theory that higher CO2 concentrations cause increases in GAST. Lacking such a validated theory, EPA’s entire house of cards collapses.
More generally, EPA violated both the scientific method and the Scientific Advisory Board statute intended to enforce the scientific method when it made its highly influential scientific assessment in the Endangerment Finding."
"In 2007, a divided Supreme Court ruled that the Environmental Protection Agency must treat carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases as "pollutants," and must therefore analyze whether the increasing concentrations in atmospheric carbon might reasonably be anticipated to endanger human health and welfare. The court may be on the verge of facing this issue once again.
To be clear, the court did not mandate regulation in 2007; rather, it mandated that the EPA go through what is known as an "Endangerment Finding" process. The EPA did so and on Dec. 15, 2009, issued its ruling that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases must be regulated. This EPA finding and associated rulings were immediately challenged in the federal D.C. Circuit Court, which initially ruled in favor of the EPA."
Thursday, 27 December 2012
"“Far from being “carbon neutral,” wood-burning biomass actually emits more carbon dioxide (the primary global warming greenhouse gas) per unit of energy produced than either gas or coal. Yes, trees can grow back and reabsorb that carbon, but that growth takes many years. The most recent studies show that."
Wednesday, 26 December 2012
"If you search enough, you’ll eventually find some news about the massive cold gripping a vast area of Asia. Those reporting it are calling it the worst cold snap there in decades."
Down to minus 57°C is Siberia As warm records are set in germany, people over a vast area of Asia are moaning under a record cold. Russia is gripped by the worst winter since 1938, where already more than 90 people have frozen to death. Also in India and China people are suffering from the extreme cold.”
"A new paper published in the European Geosciences Union journal Biogeosciences reconstructs sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea of the Canadian Arctic over the past 150 years and finds modern sea ice coverage [9.4 months per year] is significantly greater than during the period from ~ 1887-1945 [8.3 months per year]. Figure 4 of the paper shows modern sea ice coverage is amongst the highest levels of the entire 150 year record. The authors find that the reduced sea ice coverage from ~1887-1945 corresponded with reconstructed sea surface temperatures that were up to 3C warmer from 1885-1935 in comparison to the average modern temperature. According to the paper, sea ice coverage was dominated by natural variation from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO] and Arctic Oscillation [AO]."
"Thats right. Biomass/Wood produce 330% more CO2 than a new super-efficient natural gas power plant burning natural gas. And thanks to fracking the gas is super-cheap. If you believe in the “CO2 will end the world scam”, then please fight hard against wood and biomass power plants. And fight hard for new natural gas power plants."
"Where’s that “global warming” when you really want it? This map from NOAA’s National Snow Analyses page shows the snow depth data: ..."
Tuesday, 25 December 2012
"I love wood stoves. There is nothing like the heat and sounds and smells of killing and burning a tree. Wood burning is renewable. It produces lots of smoke and CO2. What’s not to love. .....Bioenergy. Give tree killing and burning a nice new eco-friendly name and its win win!"
German Media Portray Yesterday’s Record High Temperature In Germany As Ominous Sign Of Global Warming
"This December for much of Germany and Central Europe has been a pretty cold month so far, with lots of snow and cold weather. At least that was the case until this past weekend when a warm southerly air mass swept across Germany and elevated temperatures well above normal, just in time for Christmas. .....Not surprisingly, much of the media refuses to report on the record cold gripping Russia, Siberia and large swaths of Asia, i.e. an area thousands of times larger than the isolated southern regions of Germany."
"How are we to dig a rat-hole wide enough to allow the useful idiots and true-believers to escape as each passing year makes it more and more obvious that their fatuous credo has all the plausibility of the now somewhat discredited notion that the world was to be snuffed out at this year’s winter solstice? Every student of the arts of diplomacy in the civil-service and staff colleges of the U.K. hears much about the rat-hole problem. How does one let the other side off some hook on which they have imprudently impaled themselves, while minimizing their loss of face? A cornered rat will fight savagely, even against overwhelming odds, because it has no alternative. Give the rat a way out and it will instinctively take it."
Monday, 24 December 2012
"In my first article on the leaked AR5 Chapter 11 draft, I focused on the extraordinary lengths to which the IPCC has gone to surround their projections with caveats that make it nearly impossible for any of them to be outright wrong. But what of the alarmist narrative? I am sad to report that it is alive and breathing. On the other hand, it appears to be on life support. I chose two examples to bring to everyone’s attention. One because I think it is amusing, and the other because it is a whopper that I doubt will survive to the final draft."
"The names of those selected to write the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report were only announced in June 2010. But nine full months before that, in September 2009, the IPCC’s chairman already knew what this report was going to say.
Here’s what he told a live audience in New York:
When the IPCC’s fifth assessment comes out in 2013 or 2014, there will be a major revival of interest in action that has to be taken. People are going to say, ‘My God, we are going to have to take action much faster than we had planned.’
ED: A bit wet like the UK....
Sunday, 23 December 2012
"In the final version that went to air, not only did three of the four key sets of evidence that fuel our skepticism vanish, the editors split and diced sentences to make it appear that David said a sentence he never actually said. He doesn’t think the poorly sited thermometers show the “models were wrong” (we have much better evidence than that); that’s illogical and absurd. Everything I said of any substance was edited out (which I’m kinda proud of). They came all that way to watch me try to convince Anna Rose, then left me with 18 bland words. Perhaps what I discussed (and Anna’s weak replies) was too dangerous, not easy to mock, and they couldn’t ambush Nick Minchin with any experts that could debunk what I said?
Obviously Smith & Nasht were on a fishing trip here (funded by you and me). They were fishing for ways to discredit skeptics. In the end they had to resort to deleting 75% of the evidence, and 100% of my points. Blind commentators later claimed that the bloggers had no credibility. Easy for them to say when they didn’t see most of what we said or the data we presented."
Read: ABC of bias (Bishop Hill)
Saturday, 22 December 2012
" What's more, the climate-change justification for a carbon tax is bogus. Greenhouse-gas emissions are rising in China and other emerging economies, not in the United States. Carbon-dioxide emissions in the U.S. have been declining and by 2035 will return to 2005 levels, the Energy Information Administration projects.
Advances in climate science, meanwhile, raise even more doubt about the assertion that human activities are the primary cause of warming. Former NASA scientist Roy Spencer, for example, has shown that temperatures since 1976 have risen and stabilized in parallel with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a natural climate pattern affecting all sorts of natural phenomena. An increasing number of experts now admit that natural variability is poorly understood and poorly reflected in the models that are the foundation of so much climate-change dread."
Charts Of IPCC 5 AR Draft Completely Refute The Alarmist Scenarios Of Master Curve Designer Stefan Rahmstorf
"Now that the preliminary draft of the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR 5) is available online, thanks to Alec Rawls, readers have had the chance to analyze it in detail. Michael Krüger at Readers Edition here takes a look at some of the charts and graphics for temperature and sea level rise development, and compares the IPCC charts to those from alarmist Stefan Rahmstorf."
" I must also update the part of my story that dealt with the Longannet power station, provider of electricity for a quarter of all Scottish homes, which was forbidden, in 2004, to continue burning half of Scotland’s sewage as a fuel to make electricity. The top Scottish judge upheld a ruling by the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (Sepa), which had previously welcomed the scheme, that under EU waste rules this was illegal.
In fact it turns out that Sepa let Longannet continue burning sewage pellets, illegally, right up to April this year – the resulting ash being sold to a firm called Scotash, which turns it into building materials. Now Scotash itself buys the pellets, to reduce them directly to ash in an EU-compliant incinerator. So, it is legal under EU waste rules to turn sewage into ash – it’s just that it is not legal to use it to make electricity on the way. .."
Joe Romm demonstrates himself to be an angry know-nothing in his attack on Matt Ridley’s WSJ essay – Ridley responds
""The writing style of Romm is pretty normal angry fare for him, though in this case he’s added some extra levels of angry bloviation, and it suggests Mr. Ridley is right over the target when Romm shoots that much flak. It also should be noted that Mr. Romm is a paid political operative for the Center for American Progress.
As such, he deals in political hit pieces catering to “low information” political acolytes, whereas Mr. Ridley deals in facts. Romm is so fearful of facts he doesn’t even allow readers to judge for themselves, as there is no link to Ridley’s article in his hit piece."
Friday, 21 December 2012
"I like checking the temperatures in Siberia using the map at Joe Bastardi’s Weatherbell. Today I found a real extreme reading."
"The creator of the four billion pixel interactive image of Everest has warned that more must be done to tackle climate change in order to save world's highest mountain. ... Mr Breashears's interest in climate change, with particular reference to its effects on Everest, is a result of his long experience of climbing the mountain. "Those of us who have climbed on Mount Everest for the past 33 years have seen the changes taking place under our own feet." The Hillary Step at 28,800ft used to be almost entirely under snow, but these days "our crampons scrape and scratch across hundreds of feet of exposed rock" and little snow or ice remains."
ED:Nothing to do the Modern Warming period then ?
"It’s the worst cold snap in Russia in over 70 years. Hundreds have already frozen to death across Eastern Europe. But you won’t be hearing about this in the mainstream media."
"IPCC officials know that the papers to be published in that issue of the PNAS have not been written yet. Their own document says the submission deadline isn’t until January 31, 2013.
So why is the IPCC giving its authors this kind of heads-up? Is it clairvoyant? Does it already know that these papers will be so ground-breaking the IPCC won’t be able to ignore them?
Perhaps. Or perhaps IPCC officials are telling authors where to look for material that fills inconvenient gaps in their narrative."
Bishop Hill:Cheating at the IPCC
Thursday, 20 December 2012
"Even though the official charts show no significant warming trend in the past 15 years, the planet may be even cooler than the IPCC figures suggest. Mr. Watts, who runs the Watts Up With That website, points out that IPCC is using adjusted data. In a forthcoming scientific paper, he demonstrates that improper placement of weather stations has resulted in the temperature increase being overstated by 92 percent. The last thing government officials want to hear is that the planet isn’t actually warming.
Reality puts IPCC in a bind. Despite the draft chart’s implicit admission that climate models have exaggerated warming, IPCC has not backed down from the tale that carbon dioxide, a natural byproduct of industrial society, is heating the planet. At the same time, the organization realizes it can no longer hide from the widely known temperature data. Billions of dollars are at stake, and politicians expect IPCC to continue drumming up the fears of imminent cataclysm necessary for advancing their classic tax-and-spend liberal agenda. The spending comes in the form of subsidies to trendy “green” companies (usually run by powerful Democratic donors), and cap-and-trade schemes supply the tax revenue."
"Reactions are coming in worldwide worldwide to figure 1.4 of the IPCC AR4 draft report. and the revelation that climate sensitivity is lower by aerosol analysis than the IPCC officially projects. Hotheads are blowing gaskets because the hot air just went out of their cause. William Connolley (with an e) gets the “blown head gasket award” for this round, see below."
"As it's done many times before, the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change met in November to assess the threat of man-made global warming. And now it's working on a report intended to scare the masses into believing that humans are burning up their world. We don't doubt that the final version of the IPCC's fifth report due next year will indeed make the usual attempt to frighten everyone. But for now those who trade in global warming alarmism are having to smooth out a troublesome bump in the report's draft.
........Yet again, the IPCC shows it's not interested in scientific inquiry but rather politics that serve one group while countering another. Like so much of the U.N., it has nothing useful to offer." (h/t Climate Depot)
"A new report highlighting the world's huge demand for coal has cast doubt on the future of low-carbon economies. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) Medium-Term Coal Market Report predicts coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world's top energy source in the next five years. ......"The differential between operating a diesel-fired power station and a coal-fired power station is significant in favour of the coal-fired power station," he told PM. "Hence we would expect if oil keeps trading in this $US90 region or better, that there would be a natural flow of diesel-generated power stations closing and being replaced with cheaper coal-fired stations." The IEA report found coal demand was increasing in nearly every region of the world apart from the United States, where natural gas was displacing coal.Mr Lennox says that trend is unlikely to catch on in other countries. "Unfortunately around the rest of the globe, natural gas is not an easy commodity to be transported," he said. "It does require billions of dollars to actually convert it to a state where it can be moved. "This makes coal very competitive, and hence coal will, for probably many years to come, actually stay still quite a significant supplier to the energy market, and especially electricity generation markets."
An animated analysis of the IPCC AR5 graph shows ‘IPCC analysis methodology and computer models are seriously flawed’
"The animated graphic is based on Figure 1-4 from the recently leaked IPCC AR5 draft document. This one chart is all we need to prove, without a doubt, that IPCC analysis methodology and computer models are seriously flawed. They have way over-estimated the extent of Global Warming since the IPCC first started issuing Assessment Reports in 1990, and continuing through the fourth report issued in 2007.
When actual observations over a period of up to 22 years substantially contradict predictions based on a given climate theory, that theory must be greatly modified or completely discarded. IPCC AR5 draft figure 1-4 with animated central Global Warming predictions from FAR (1990), SAR (1996), TAR (2001), and AR5 (2007)."
Wednesday, 19 December 2012
"A new paper published in The Journal of Climate admits that climate models are greatly exaggerating the likelihood that global warming increases tropical cyclone activity or intensity. According to the authors, "temperature trends in NCEP [the National Center for Environmental Protection database] are unlikely to be accurate, and likely drive spuriously positive TC [tropical cyclone] and PI [potential intensity] trends, and an inflated connection between absolute surface temperature warming and TC [tropical cyclone] activity increases." Indeed, as observations show no increase in global cyclone activity."
"As shown by the Climategate emails, when dealing with the IPCC, people need to keep their eyes on their fries. I’ll suggest the same vigilance concerning this remarkable chart showing the failure of the one or the UN’s most-cited series of forecasts, and I’ll predict that it does not see the light of day when the final report is released next year." (h/t Climate Depot)
"This article is a detailed complement to Matt Ridley’s Op-Ed today in the Wall Street Journal: ..."
"Today Matt Ridley has a must-read article in the Wall Street Journal on this issue. He thinks the turning point has arrived. He’s been speaking with an inside reviewer, Nic Lewis, who, though prohibited from quoting from drafts-in-progress, says some of the draft material “is dynamite.” If you’re without a Journal subscription, here’s some of the key bits: ..."
"Russia is enduring its harshest winter in over 70 years, with temperatures plunging as low as -50 degrees Celsius. Dozens of people have already died, and almost 150 have been hospitalized. The country has not witnessed such a long cold spell since 1938, meteorologists said, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees lower than the seasonal norm all over Russia."
"When Lib Dem and green zealot Chris Huhne bowed out as UK energy minister, many of us familiar with the physics and arithmetic of energy production and power generation breathed a sigh of relief. But all the signs suggests that Lib Dem green activist Ed Davey is shaping up to be an even greater menace to UK energy security and for the economy. After months of government foot-dragging, Davey finally gave the go ahead for the resumption of shale gas drilling on December 13th. And, according to the latest reports, the shale gas deposit around Blackpool in the north-west could be a full 50 percent larger than previous estimates.
..... Energy is no small issue for UK householders already smarting under the cost of soaring bills. Which bring us full circle to Ed Davey’s reluctant decision to give the go ahead for UK shale gas development. Driven by a social agenda and not security or price considerations, Ed Davey could yet derail the economics of cheaper UK gas through the imposition of a network of debilitating and costly ‘green’ regulations on the shale gas industry.
Most damaging of all, the government intends to impose a new tax in 2013 on every ton of CO2 emitted from fossil fuels. The new green tax will hit the fledgling shale gas industry with an initial levy of £16 per ton rising incrementally to £70 per ton by 2030. And, just for good measure, the EU is also lining up its own raft of regulations next year. Could it be Davey’s intention to artificially hike the price at which UK shale gas hits the market to make green-sourced energy appear a commercially viable alternative?
"Between 2010 and 2014, the annual cost to businesses and homes of subsidising solar, wind and hydro-electric power – under the renewables obligation (RO) – is set to double, topping £2.5bn and costing each household the equivalent of £97 a year. Meanwhile, feed-in-tariffs (FITs), the subsidy paid by consumers to encourage small businesses and homes to generate renewable power, will quadruple between 2012 and 2015 – hitting £790m. .....What approach should the UK take? First, we must rely more on nuclear power and shale gas reserves. Unlike current renewable technologies, they can be produced at scale and help keep bills down over the long-term, while reducing UK reliance on carbon. Prospects for nuclear were boosted by Hitachi’s £700m investment in new plants at Anglesey and Oldbury. That is positive, but not enough. It is a measure of the last government’s negligence that, even with extra support from CfDs, nuclear generation is only expected to return to 1990s levels by 2030."
"A paper published today in Quaternary Research finds sea levels on the island of Curaçao [southern Caribbean] during the last interglacial were up to 9 meters higher than the present, and that during another interglacial period 400,000 years ago sea levels were up to 20 meters higher than the present. According to the paper, these significantly higher sea levels during prior interglacials "require major ice sheet loss from Greenland and Antarctica." The authors determine sea levels by dating fossilized reefs that are presently located high above current sea levels [photo below]. The paper also shows sea levels in the Red Sea were up to ~8 meters higher than the present within the past 5,000 years of the current interglacial, and up to ~12 meters higher than the present during the last interglacial. This and many other papers debunk claims by climate alarmists that recent sea level rise is unprecedented, unnatural, or accelerated. In fact, sea levels rose at a constant rate without acceleration during the 20th century, and have decelerated since 2005 to a rate of only ~1.2 mm/yr [less than 5 inches per century]."
"People who challenge the claims of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are often labeled “global warming skeptics”. Skeptics do not deny that warming occurred in modern times, but, sensibly, questioned the cause. The IPCC said it was due to human production of CO2. This is driven by a political agenda, not science, so any opposition is considered troublesome and requires silencing.
The IPCC claim is an unproven hypothesis. Science advances by proposing hypotheses that other scientists challenge in their proper role as skeptics. The word skeptic has markedly different public and scientific connotation; negative for the former and positive for the latter. Scientists act as skeptics by trying to disprove the hypothesis. Global warming skeptics are acting appropriately.
The IPCC hypothesis was untested. Professor Richard Lindzen, professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said that consensus was claimed before the research even began. The IPCC tried to prove the hypothesis, putting them in the untenable position of eliminating, ignoring, or manipulating anything that showed the hypothesis was wrong. They had to shoot the skeptics who were the messengers of the problems."
"Mr. Lewis is an expert reviewer of the recently leaked draft of the IPCC's WG1 Scientific Report. The IPCC forbids him to quote from it, but he is privy to all the observational best estimates and uncertainty ranges the draft report gives. What he has told me is dynamite.
Given what we know now, there is almost no way that the feared large temperature rise is going to happen. Mr. Lewis comments: "Taking the IPCC scenario that assumes a doubling of CO2, plus the equivalent of another 30% rise from other greenhouse gases by 2100, we are likely to experience a further rise of no more than 1°C."
A cumulative change of less than 2°C by the end of this century will do no net harm. It will actually do net good—that much the IPCC scientists have already agreed upon in the last IPCC report. Rainfall will increase slightly, growing seasons will lengthen, Greenland's ice cap will melt only very slowly, and so on.
.......The scientists at the IPCC next year have to choose whether they will admit—contrary to what complex, unverifiable computer models indicate—that the observational evidence now points toward lukewarm temperature change with no net harm. On behalf of all those poor people whose lives are being ruined by high food and energy prices caused by the diversion of corn to biofuel and the subsidizing of renewable energy driven by carboncrats and their crony-capitalist friends, one can only hope the scientists will do so." (h/t Bishop Hill)
Tuesday, 18 December 2012
In my report, I analyzed four years’ of hourly production and load data and found that wind generation followed an uneconomic pattern, producing the most electricity when least needed and the least electricity when demand and market prices were highest." (h/t JunkScience.com )
"The message is clear. When it comes to sea level, any reliance on the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report is misplaced. Study of current and ancient climate tells us that climate model predictions of rapid acceleration in global and regional sea levels are simple scaremongering. Prudent policymaking should be based on objective science rather than fear." (h/t Climate Change Dispatch)
"...And yet, despite these alarming stories, according to the IPCC report showing observations versus the models in figure 1.7, atmospheric methane concentration isn’t accelerating, nor is it currently within the forecast bounds of any of the IPCC climate models."
"In an open letter to Lord Hall, GWPF trustees Lord Lawson, Labour’s Lord Donoughue and Liberal Democrat Baroness Nicholson highlighted “28gate” – a BBC seminar that shaped its coverage of climate change. It was held in 2006 between 28 senior BBC staff and 28 outsiders whom the BBC Trust later described as “some of the best scientific experts”. After the meeting the BBC said the weight of evidence meant it could no longer justify giving the same space to climate sceptics as climate change advocates. But the GWPF claims that only two of the outsiders were scientists. The rest, it says, were mainly environmentalists or “non-scientists with a vested interest in promoting renewable energy”. The three peers wrote: “So the BBC stands convicted not only of culpable imbalance but also of rank dishonesty.” (h/t Climate Realists)
Monday, 17 December 2012
"Sherwood uses theory—his dissatisfaction with one theory of how solar amplification might work—to ignore the (admitted) evidence for some mechanism of solar amplification. Putting theory over evidence is not science. It is the exact definitional opposite of science "
Sunday, 16 December 2012
"...Alec Rawls pulls him up. Sherwood calls us deniers, but the IPCC still denies solar-magnetic effects that have been known for 200 years. This anti-science response is no surprise from Sherwood, who once changed the colour of “zero” to red to make it match the color the models were supposed to find. (Since when was red the color of no-warming? Sure you can do it, but it is deceptive.) That effort still remains one of the most egregious peer reviewed distortions of science I have ever seen. — Jo"
Saturday, 15 December 2012
" What Kennedy omitted to mention (and Humphrys failed to pick him up on) was that, from next April, the Government will be imposing its swingeing new “carbon tax” on every ton of CO2 emitted by producing electricity from fossil fuels, rapidly rising from £16 a ton to £70 by 2030. In all the media’s obsession with how fast our energy bills are rising, this is scarcely ever mentioned. But this tax alone will add billions a year to our bills. Within 17 years, it will be well on the way to doubling them. And of course it will apply just as much to electricity from shale gas as it will to that produced by the coal-fired power stations, currently producing nearly half our electricity, which the Government wants to drive out of business as soon as possible.
So, at just the time when the Government reluctantly holds out to us the prospect that the gas we will need to keep our lights on might become very much cheaper, it will be imposing this new tax to make it very much more expensive, thus cancelling out much of the financial benefit shale gas could bring us. The very failure of Mr Kennedy and the BBC to mention this underlines, yet again, just how insane our energy policy has become."
Hypocritical psychology professor Lewandowsky: Climate science is, like, super-transparent, only with lots of “confidential” documents; climate science is like gravity
"From Tom Nelson, it was too good not to repost, especially when Lewandowsky hands out moral lessons while being immoral himself with his labeling skeptics as “moon landing deniers” with a gussed up survey and statistical slight of hand that turned out to be a an academic scam used as a tool to dehumanize people that have legitimate doubts about the science.
Now that Lewandowsky has declared the AR5 draft leak issue “dishonourable” (something not even the IPCC itself said in their statement) I expect we won’t see any use of AR5 draft information by his mouthpiece pawns, John Cook and Dana Nuccitelli on “Skeptical Science”, because well, using that new “dishonourably” obtained information would be wrong according to Lew."
"As hot air rises the kinetic energy is replaced by potential energy and the temperature falls.
Potential energy cannot radiate out.
Before it can radiate out the air has to descend and become compressed again so that the PE is reconverted to KE.
The effect is greatest at the surface.
Radiation is not relevant as you say but the reason is that radiation from the sun always equals radiation out from top of atmosphere. Solar input gets a free pass straight through at any given level of mass, gravity and insolation.
If any forcing element other than a change in mass, gravity or insolation tries to create an imbalance at top of atmosphere it is always offset by an expansion or contraction of the entire atmosphere which transfers KE to or from PE as necessary to maintain equilibrium.
That is the real game changer,"
"The obvious concern to this reviewer, who has measured total column water vapor for 22.5 years, is the absence of any mention of the 2012 NVAP-M paper. This paper concludes, “Therefore, at this time, we can neither prove nor disprove a robust trend in the global water vapor data.” Non-specialist readers must be made aware of this finding and that it is at odds with some earlier papers."
Friday, 14 December 2012
"Over the last quarter century, mainstream climate science has changed dramatically, from a paradigm where climate changes naturally to one where climate forever remains the same unless humans meddle with it. The reasons for this paradigm shift are clearly not based on science. ......In my talks to groups around the country over the years, I find widespread public support for the idea that climate does indeed change naturally. For the scientists who the public supports financially to largely ignore the issue, I fear that there will eventually be a public backlash which will end up hurting taxpayer support of climate research. Unless they start behaving a little more like objective scientists, I predict that global warming researchers are living on borrowed time."
"What was the point of keeping the IPCC draft secret? The point is so the IPCC can control both the content and the PR. The IPCC wants a free kick, and they get one if the world doesn’t see how they arrive at the conclusion, and if critics can’t specifically point to errors or flaws until weeks after the giant press circus has done its megaphone production. It’s how the media game works. First they release the “up and coming” scary headline. (Already done for AR5.) Critics can’t criticize what they can’t see."
"Take a look at Figure 1.4 from the AR5 draft (shown below). The gray bars in Fig 1.4 are irrelevant (because they flubbed the definition of them), the colored bands are the ones that matter because they provide bounds for all current and previous IPCC model forecasts, FAR, SAR, TAR, AR4. Look for the surprise in the graph."
" So who are the sceptics and “deniers” now? The draft of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report has been leaked - and it dumps many of the alarmist claims once made about the effects of man-made warming."
"While Louise Gray was wetting her knickers in the Daily Telegraph at the prospect of handing over billions of our money to compensate low lying island states, and our ludicrous Energy Secretary, Ed Davey, talked about helping “people who are losing their countries below the waves”, the Maldives have been busy getting on with life in the real world.
During the past year, they have been busy building four new airports."
"Breaking news from the US – h/t Watts Up With That? – where a leaked draft of the IPCC's latest report AR5 admits what some of us have suspected for a very long time: that the case for man-made global warming is looking weaker by the day and that the sun plays a much more significant role in "climate change" than the scientific "consensus" has previously been prepared to concede.
Here's the killer admission:
Many empirical relationships have been reported between GCR or cosmogenic isotope archives and some aspects of the climate system (e.g., Bond et al., 2001; Dengel et al., 2009; Ram and Stolz, 1999). The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link. We focus here on observed relationships between GCR and aerosol and cloud properties. ..."
As the leaker explains, this is a game-changer:
The admission of strong evidence for enhanced solar forcing changes everything. The climate alarmists can’t continue to claim that warming was almost entirely due to human activity over a period when solar warming effects, now acknowledged to be important, were at a maximum. The final draft of AR5 WG1 is not scheduled to be released for another year but the public needs to know now how the main premises and conclusions of the IPCC story line have been undercut by the IPCC itself."
Thursday, 13 December 2012
"Growing Antarctic ice is actually shrinking. That’s what a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is claiming in a new paper published by Nature.This is precisely in line with the global warming logic that a warmer globe leads to colder, snowier winters. The peer reviewers at Nature simply have no qualms about such creative, yet contradictory logic. Addition is now subtraction. 2+2 now equals 3! "
"United States taxpayers have funded climate science to the tune of well over 80 billion dollars, all channeled through the funding bureaucracy established by Vice President Albert “the end is nigh” Gore when he served as President Clinton’s “climate czar.” That Gore-built bureaucracy is still to this day striving to insure that not a penny of all those taxpayer billions ever goes to any researcher who is not committed to the premature conclusion that human contributions to atmospheric CO2 are causing dangerous global warming (despite the lack of any statistically significant warming for more than 15 years).
Acolytes of this bought “consensus” want to see what new propaganda their tax dollars have wrought and so do the skeptics. It’s unanimous, and an already twice-vetted draft is sitting now in thousands of government offices around the world. Time to fork it over to the people."
"The report authors should first have read John Etherington’s The Wind Farm Scam to grasp the inherent and costly associated problems of wind. Etherington is both an ecologist and a specialist researcher into the implications of intermittent renewable electricity generation, especially wind power. “Wind power is remarkably expensive in capital investment for a given output,” says Etherington who goes on to provide a raft of key statistics that reveal just how poor the investment-to-return ratio of wind power is, with offshore proving twice as poor as onshore (p.74). His book highlights how the UK’s energy watchdog Ofgem identifies that the National Grid would require £20 billion of investment, equal to its current capital value – and oddly the same figure by which the report maintains the UK would be better off – “to cope with the dispersed and remote nature of wind power and other intermittents.” An impressive array of hard data prompts Etherington to conclude: “wind monsters turbines will do nothing useful for us, will spread environmental harm and above all have only one serious function – of minting money for the undeserving, aided and abetted by the uneducated”.
"Britain has given the green light to gas "fracking”, just days after David Cameron said the controversial technique could help bring down household energy bills."
Govt link here
Wednesday, 12 December 2012
500 German Authorities Raid Deutsche Bank Amid Alleged Tax Evasion Scam Surrounding CO2 Certificate Trading!
"Some of Germany’s leading media outlets are reporting that 500 German police officers and tax authorities raided mighty Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt earlier today. According to Die Welt here, five managers have been linked to a scam involving the trading of carbon permits. Arrest warrants have been issued."
Deutsche Bank co-CEO drawn into C02 tax evasion probe
"(Reuters) - Deutsche Bank co-chief executive Juergen Fitschen was drawn into a widening tax evasion probe linked to carbon trading at Germany's biggest lender on Wednesday as police and tax inspectors raided its offices."
"According to the latest NOAA sea level budget, global sea levels rose at only 1.1 - 1.3 mm/year from 2005-2012, which is less than half of the rate claimed by the IPCC [3.1 mm/yr] and is equivalent to less than 5 inches per century. Contrary to alarmist claims, sea level rise decelerated over the 20th century, has also decelerated since 2005, and there is no evidence of any human influence on sea levels."
"A piece of mine in the AFR this morning explored the costs of the carbon tax, according to the latest policy zig zag soon to be linked to the EU carbon price, and the renewable subsidies.
If the carbon price stays low – likely with Europe in permanent recession – the renewable regulations will be even more costly. The piece calls for scrapping the whole array of measures now that even the thickest of commentators must realise in the fog of the Doha failure that the world (other than the EU and Australia) has rejected the economic suicide of forcing renewables and de-industrialisation. That spells the end of the subsidy dependent renewable energy. "
"The lack of any unpleasant climate change impacts will no doubt have entered the conciousness of the delegates — not least when UKIP’s Lord Monckton hijacked the conference microphone and pointedly explained some of these uncomfortable facts to them — but this knowledge will not have affected their thinking much. The ability of UN conference delegates to ignore empirical facts can at times border on the heroic. ....So long as taxpayers continue to fund activist and technocrat alike, so long as there is a COP19 next year, and so long as politicians continue to play along with the charade, everyone is happy. Except the taxpayer, that is."
"David Keith, professor of applied physics at Harvard University, is lead author on papers published in Nature Climate Change and Environmental Research Letters which speculate as to how we could restore the polar ice. .....His second paper suggests the whole operation could be accomplished with just a few modified Gulfstream jets, costing somewhere in the region of $8billion a year."
ED:just how bonkers is that,let nature take its course....Look here (WUWT Sea Ice Page)
Tuesday, 11 December 2012
"If an Eritrean, Somali or Afghan suicide bomber decides to blow himself up on the London Underground, it will be because his head has been turned by the constant diet of poisonous propaganda churned out by the mad mullahs of the global Islamist death cult. It won’t be because British taxpayers failed to put up a wind farm in the Tora Bora mountains.
Barker was echoing the alarmism of his lame-brained Lib Dem boss at the energy department, Ed Davey, who tried to justify spending billions of pounds we haven’t got subsidising a variety of greenhouse-related projects around the globe. As well as giving British money to German and Japanese firms to erect windmills in Africa, Davey is also bunging the Colombians £21 million of our hard-earned to develop ‘greener’ cattle farms. Never mind that this comes at the same time as another Government-funded quango is warning that unless we stop eating dairy produce NOW we’re all going to DIE!
And, anyway, it wasn’t that long ago we were being told that the ‘eructations’ from cattle were the single biggest cause of global warming. Make your minds up. The biggest cash crop in Colombia is not cattle, it’s cocaine. Where, exactly, does dopey Davey think this largesse is going to end up? My money’s on the Medellin Cartel. Yet he’s quite happy to keep on doling out the cash."
"COP18, shorthand for the Conference of Parties, brought together under the aegis of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was especially devious. Thanks to the Committee for A Constructive Tomorrow those of us keeping an eye on these charlatans, intent on transferring billions from developed nations to those that have failed to keep pace, we learned on December 8th that “The negotiations here in Doha have gone into overtime.” .....It is essential to understand that scientific literature shows no link between recent extreme weather events like Hurricane Sandy and the bogus global warming. Indeed, the planet has been in a natural cooling cycle for sixteen years. As to the weather, the best definition I ever heard was that it is best described as “chaos.” ....
Meanwhile, back at COP18 what amounted to secret negotiations caused a lot of anger among delegates to the conference. Cathie Adams, president of the Texas Eagle Forum, at a CFACT press briefing told attendees that “in all her 17 years of attending U.N. climate gatherings there has never been this much difficulty getting up-to-date information or reluctance to accommodate informed public input into the process.” ......"
"The link between extreme weather and global warming has as much scientific basis as the pagan rite of human sacrifice to ensure a good harvest. ......University of Chicago economist Emily Oster demonstrated in 2004 that the most active era of witchcraft trials in Europe coincided with the Little Ice Age. Since then, other researchers have argued that chilly weather may have precipitated the Salem witch trials in the 1690s — one of the coldest periods of that epoch.
It was widely believed during the late Middle Ages that witches were capable of controlling the weather with their magic powers, and thus cause storms that could destroy harvests and hobble food production. ......Climate-change skeptics might be regarded as modern-day witches because they think that global warming comes from natural forces. However, it’s superstitious alarmists, who believe that extreme weather originates in our CO2 emissions and who have a dread of impending disaster, who are really the witches." (h/t Climate Depot)
Monday, 10 December 2012
Anger at climate aid ‘blank cheque’: Ministers accused after agreeing global deal to repair ‘loss and damage’ caused by extreme weather
"But Tory critics claimed the measure would leave Britain open to paying an unlimited bill in addition to the £6bn already pledged by 2020 in climate aid. Philip Davies, MP for Shipley, said: ‘It sounds like a blank cheque and I think the Government must have taken leave of their senses. On the one hand they tell us we haven’t got any money, the country is broke. ‘And people accept that they know that, but then to internationally go spraying taxpayers money about as if it’s going out of fashion, my constituents find incredibly offensive. 'They cannot afford this largesse, the Government are going to have to start acting in the British national interest.’ ........The UK has already pledged £2.9 billion during this summit to support wind farms in Africa and greener agriculture in Colombia over the next four years, despite a lack of similar pledges from other countries. Britain and other European countries also signed up to an extension to the Kyoto Protocol agreement until 2020 although the new pact only covers a sixth of the world’s polluters - and does not require action from the biggest emitters, the US and China.
ED: Free borrowed money anyone ? ...
" The latest research, published in Nature: Climate Change today, blows away the theory that reefs were doomed due to rising ocean acidification caused by the higher take-up of carbon dioxide in the seas. Researchers have found a common coralline algae that grows at the leading edge of coral reefs is not nearly as susceptible to changing ph levels as coral because it contains high levels of dolomite… "
Sunday, 9 December 2012
"The shale gas deposit around Blackpool is 50 per cent bigger than previously estimated, The Times has learnt. The news will put more pressure on ministers who are due to lift the ban on extraction as early as next week, to support what could prove to be a gas bonanza for Britain.
The beast of Blackpool
"The big news of the weekend is the announcement that the Bowland Shale is even bigger than we thought".(Bishop Hill)
"At most, global average sea level is rising at a rate equivalent to 2-3 inches per century. It is probably not rising at all. - Sea level is measured both by tide gauges and, since 1992, by satellite altimetry. One of the keepers of the satellite record told Professor Mörner that the record had been interfered with to show sea level rising, because the raw data from the satellites showed no increase in global sea level at all."
"Southeastern Europe was hit especially hard, with up to a half a meter of snow falling in the Balkan region. More lives were claimed in Poland, where Spiegel writes: “The winter outbreak has claimed 3 lives since Friday, temperatures in some regions fell below minus 15°C.”
Saturday, 8 December 2012
Doha Fails Utterly – Only 37 Countries Agree To Extend Old Kyoto Treaty! “Lots Of Declarations Of Intent”
"Only 37 of 194 countries signed on. That means the treaty is internationally non-binding. The only thing that is certain is that there are going to be many more climate junkets in the future, wasting more taxpayer money."
"The year as a whole is currently running as the second coldest since 1996, beaten only by the exceptionally cold year of 2010. Temperatures so far in December are 2 degrees below normal, and the Met Office are forecasting that this will continue for the foreseeable future."
Atmospheric CO2 concentration records were being broken long before anthropogenic emissions became significant.
Atmospheric CO2 levels were rising much faster than anthropogenic emissions from 1750-1875.
Anthropogenic emissions did not “catch up” to atmospheric CO2 until 1960.
The natural carbon flux is much more variable than the so-called scientific consensus thinks it is.
The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) cannot be more than 2°C and is probably closer to 1°C.
The worst-case scenario based on the evidence is comparable to the IPCC’s most greentopian, best-case scenario.
Ice cores with accumulation rates less than 1m/yr are not useful for ECS estimations."
"Ottawa, Canada, December 9, 2012: “Governments must re-examine climate change science before considering further, more concrete commitments in the United Nations negotiating process,” ..... “there has been no statistically significant global warming for almost 16 years. During this period…carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations rose by nearly 9%...Global warming that has not occurred cannot have caused the extreme weather of the past few years.” “Whether, when and how atmospheric warming will resume is unknown. The science is unclear.” “The hypothesis that our emissions of CO2 have caused, or will cause, dangerous warming is not supported by the evidence.” (h/t Climate Depot)
C02 is not a pollutant. (yet the US EPA calls it " a danger to human health" )
'Carbon dioxide is essential for internal respiration in a human body. Internal respiration is a process, by which oxygen is transported to body tissues and carbon dioxide is carried away from them. Carbon dioxide is a guardian of the pH of the blood, which is essential for survival.'
Carbon dioxide is used by the food industry, the oil industry, and the chemical industry.
Plants require carbon dioxide to conduct photosynthesis........
(Green plants convert carbon dioxide and water into food compounds, such as glucose, and oxygen. This process is called photosynthesis.Plants and animals, in turn, convert the food compounds by combining it with oxygen to release energy for growth and other life activities. This is the respiration process, the reverse of photosynthesis.)
Consider this... the world needs feeding:
In 1900, the world's population was 1.65 billion.
In 1950, the worlds population was 2.5 billion.
In 1974, the worlds population was 4 billion.
Carbon dioxide in is considered a trace gas.
Five hundred million years ago carbon dioxide was 20 times more prevalent than today.
A problem: nearly one third of CO2 emissions occured since 1998, and it hasn’t 'warmed' ....(equal to the 'warming period' preceding it).
"It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist. Anyone who has the faintest doubt that this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bare. (Montford's book organizes the facts very well.) I don't believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion. I would almost make that revulsion a definition of the word scientist." (Harold Lewis, Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara)
" After several days of deadlocked talks, conference chairman Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah finally rushed through the package of deals which he termed the Doha Climate Gateway, riding roughshod over country objections as he swung the gavel in quick succession proclaiming: "It is so decided."
Observers said Russia had been trying to halt the extension of Kyoto, whose first leg expires on December 31. Moscow objected to the passing of the deal, and noted that it retained the right to appeal the president's action."
" The country is signed up to a target to cut carbon emissions by 34 per cent by 2020, but this could go up to 42 per cent under a new United Nations deal. Experts last night warned that the new target could add hundreds of pounds to energy bills every year, and industry leaders said new carbon taxes would make British businesses less competitive."
" It might seem rather quixotic for a government that recently had to borrow £8.6 billion in a single month, in order to cover its ever-widening spending deficit, to then lash out £1.8 billion in foreign aid to build wind turbines in Mexico to supply Walmart with electricity, or to provide solar panels to some of the poorest countries in the world on condition that they don’t build the proper power stations they need to become richer.
This was what Greg Barker, our “climate change minister”, announced in Doha last week, although in fact we have long since committed this money under the Fast Start programme, whereby richer countries are pledged to pour billions into “climate-related” schemes in the Third World (a programme to which we are the biggest contributor after Japan)."
Thought we were running out of fossil fuels? New technology means Britain and the U.S. could tap undreamed reserves of gas and oil
"Thirty years ago, I was Secretary of State for Energy in Margaret Thatcher’s government, and one way and another I have been a close observer of the energy scene ever since. In all that time, I have never known a technological revolution as momentous as the breakthrough that has now made it economic to extract gas from shale. Geologists have long known that shale — a finely grained rock created from compressed mud, which sits in layers — contains, trapped in it, massive amounts of gas, and in some cases, oil. ..........These are early days, and we do not yet know how much commercially exploitable shale gas there is in the UK. But the signs are encouraging. The first large discovery to be explored, the Bowland shale under the Blackpool area of Lancashire, turns out to be a thicker seam than any in the U.S. The company behind the exploration has announced that Blackpool is sitting on one of the biggest shale gas fields in the world — with a reserve of 200 trillion cubic feet lying under the Lancastrian countryside. To put that figure in perspective, it’s enough gas to keep the UK going for 50 years and create more than 5,000 jobs. There are other known deposits throughout a large part of the UK and this promises to be as important for Britain as the discovery and development of North Sea oil. It could even be bigger than that."
Friday, 7 December 2012
"Quietly, politely, authoritatively, I told the delegates three inconvenient truths they would not hear from anyone else:
• There has been no global warming for 16 of the 18 years of these wearisome, self-congratulatory yadayadathons.
• It is at least ten times more cost-effective to see how much global warming happens and then adapt in a focused way to what little harm it may cause than to spend a single red cent futilely attempting to mitigate it today.
• An independent scientific enquiry should establish whether the U.N.’s climate conferences are still heading in the right direction."
New science upsets calculations on sea level rise, climate change alert print comment Ice sheet melt massively overestimated, satellites show
"A new analysis of data from dedicated satellites shows that one of the main factors predicted to drive rising sea levels in future has been seriously overestimated, with major implications for climate talks currently underway in Doha.
.......If the Greenland ice losses aren't accelerating, there's no real reason to worry about them. According to the Princeton statement:
At current melt rates, the Greenland ice sheet would take about 13,000 years to melt completely, which would result in a global sea-level rise of more than 21 feet (6.5 meters).
Put another way, in that scenario we would be looking at 5cm of sea level rise from Greenland by the year 2130: a paltry amount. Authoritative recent research drawing together all possible causes of sea level rise bears this out, suggesting maximum possible rise in the worst case by 2100 will be 30cm. More probably it will be less, and there will hardly be any difference between the 20th and 21st centuries in sea level terms." (h/t Climate Depot)
Thursday, 6 December 2012
" Bristol University glaciologist Prof Jonathan Bamber, who was not part of the research team, said: “The very unexpected result was the negligible mass loss from high mountain Asia, which is not significantly different from zero.”
Not what Al Gore was saying three years ago, when he was warning of a billion people running out of water: ..."
"The latest alarmist reports on the supposedly dramatic sea level rise for the present and the future cannot be confirmed by actual measurements. Quite to the contrary, they are refuted by the data. Globally neither tide nor satellite data show an acceleration of sea level rise. Rather they show a slow-down. Moreover they starkly contradict the previous and current claims coming from climate institutes. Also there are good indications that the satellite data were ‘overly corrected’ using inflated amounts.“
"MANALI: With high-altitude mountains in Himachal Pradesh experiencing up to 100 cm fresh snowfall in November month after 10 years, the abundance of snow on mountains has rejuvenated nearly one thousand glaciers and has ensured uninterrupted supply of water for drinking, irrigation and hydel projects.
Even after years of research on glaciers and climate of Himalayas, scientists have failed to learn the pattern of the weather here. While scanty snowfall and rising temperature in last decade had sparked the possibilities of fast shrinking of glaciers, good spells of snowfall in last three years have changed the trend with glaciers almost growing to their original size. Some scientists say that despite heavy snowfall in winters, the extreme heat in summers is causing the melting of the glaciers with abnormal speed and others say extreme cold in winters is neutralizing the minor effect of risen temperature in summer. Overall, speed of melting of glaciers has reduced over the past few years only due to good snowfall in winter months."
"Good news. It seems the glaciers are not melting. Eco-loons had predicted glaciers in the Himalayas would be gone by 2035, but with 100cm of fresh snowfall in November, the Times of India reports that “the abundance of snow on the mountains has rejuvenated nearly one thousand glaciers in the Himalayas."
Wednesday, 5 December 2012
Open letter to UN Secretary-General: Current scientific knowledge does not substantiate Ban Ki-Moon assertions on weather and climate, say 125-plus scientists
"We the undersigned, qualified in climate-related matters, wish to state that current scientific knowledge does not substantiate your assertions. "
"The Earth has been in a warming trend since the depth of the Little Ice Age around 1680. Human emissions of carbon dioxide were negligible before 1850 and have nearly all come after the Second World War, so human carbon dioxide cannot possibly have caused the trend. Within the trend, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation causes alternating global warming and cooling for 25 to 30 years at a go in each direction. We have just finished a warming phase, so expect mild global cooling for the next two decades..........Even if we stopped emitting all carbon dioxide tomorrow, completely shut up shop and went back to the Stone Age, according to the official government climate models it would be cooler in 2050 by about 0.015 degrees. But their models exaggerate 10-fold — in fact our sacrifices would make the planet in 2050 a mere 0.0015 degrees cooler!
Finally, to those who still believe the planet is in danger from our carbon dioxide emissions: Sorry, but you’ve been had. Yes, carbon dioxide is a cause of global warming, but it’s so minor it’s not worth doing much about."
ED:This is a very good post from 2011, but its so on the money.
"The attempt at bargaining continued at talks in Cancun in 2010 and Durban in 2011. But the reality of the death was emerging. Canada, Japan, South Korea, Russia and New Zealand all announced they would not support an extension of Kyoto. To keep alive some vestige of hope, the EU proposed 2015 be set as the target for a new climate change agreement.
At the Doha negotiations concluding this week, it was clear the fourth stage of grief, depression, was setting in. A number of countries, including Australia, did not send ministers. Many NGO booths were empty. Greenpeace did not engage in the usual shenanigans for the TV cameras. This was the smallest, quietest climate change negotiation in a decade. The mood in the conference halls was resignation."
"The following is video of a CNN debate between Marc Morano and Bill Nye. I thought Bill Nye was supposed to be well-informed about science. Boy, was I wrong."
"Yet, again, despite the unexpectedly big increase in greenhouse gases, warming has paused. That is not scary, unless you are scared that your warmist theory may be wrong. Other predictions have proved exaggerated: the “permanent drought” ended, the dams did fill again, cyclones did not get worse and the Barrier Reef is not bleaching every second year. "
"In fall 2012, Geodynamics Ltd. tested a 2.6-mile-deep well at its Habanero enhanced geothermal pilot project in Australia. The well produced a strong flow of steam with surface temperatures of 375 degrees Fahrenheit and higher.
.....Zoback also will also discuss challenges facing the emerging shale gas industry. “The shale gas revolution that has been under way in North America for the past few years has been of unprecedented scale and importance,” he said. “As these resources are beginning to be developed globally, there is a critical need for fundamental research on such questions as how shale properties affect the success of hydraulic fracturing, and new methodologies that minimize the environmental impact of shale gas development.”
Approximately 30,000 shale gas wells have already been drilled in North America, he added, yet fundamental challenges have kept the industry from maximizing its full potential. “The fact is that only 25 percent of the gas is produced, and 75 percent is left behind,” he said. “We need to do a better job of producing the gas and at the same time protecting the environment.”
" As part of today’s Autumn Statement, George Osborne is expected to approve the building of 30 gas-fired power stations, simplify the regulatory process for fracking and provide tax breaks for shale gas production in Lancashire as early as next year. This is good news for Lancashire, for the British economy, for manufacturing firms and for the global environment. To do anything else would risk economic self-harm.
As recently as 10 years ago, there was a consensus that gas was going to run out in a few decades and grow ever more expensive in the meantime. Such pessimism is now a distant memory everywhere, except perhaps in the forecasting models of the Department of Energy and Climate Change. Gas, the most abundant fossil fuel, is going to last at least a century, probably much longer.
Cheap energy is the surest way to encourage economic growth. It was cheap coal that fuelled the Industrial Revolution, enabling British workers with steam-driven machinery to be far more productive than their competitors in Asia and Europe in the 19th century. The discovery, 12 years ago, of how to use pressurised water (with less than 1 per cent kitchen-sink chemicals added), instead of exotic guar gel made from Indian beans, to crack shale and release gas has now unleashed an energy revolution almost as far-reaching as the harnessing of Newcastle’s coal."
Tuesday, 4 December 2012
"Ban, addressing delegates at the annual U.N. climate talks, said time is running out for governments to act, citing recent reports showing rising emissions of greenhouse gases, which most scientists say are causing the warming trend. .....Climate scientists say it’s difficult to link a single weather event to global warming but some say the damage caused by Sandy was worse because of rising sea levels. A small minority of scientists still question whether the warming seen in recent decades is due to human activities, such as the carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. “Let us avoid all the skepticism. Let us prove wrong all these doubts on climate change,” Ban said"
ED:It makes you wonder if this person is aware of the facts....
"DOHA: An overnight diplomatic slugfest ended in log jam as US and EU refuse to even discuss how they shall provide the promised US $ 100 billion to the poor countries to adapt to climate change and address emission reductions. The row erupted even as new reports came in of the developed world having resorted to creative accounting to prove it had delivered on its promise of US $ 30 billion to the poor countries between 2010-2012."
"UK Tmin (the average minimum temperature) has been cooling at -.336C/decade for last 15 years (as of Nov 2012). ...... The graph has each monthly anomaly from the 1971-2000 average for the last 15 years."
"Even the name of the “Skeptical” “Science” blog is a lie. The blog is neither skeptical nor scientific. It is a malicious, paid propaganda platform for rude, infantile, untruthful, and often libelous attacks on anyone who dares to question whether global warming is a global crisis.
That poisonous blog has recently attacked 129 climate researchers, of whom I am one, for having dared to write an open letter to the U.N. Secretary-General asking him not to attribute tropical storm Sandy to global warming that has not occurred for 16 years.
The following are among the blog’s numerous falsehoods and libels: ........
One day, the useless “Skeptical” “Science” blog may perhaps have a curiosity value to historians studying the relentless, lavishly-funded deviousness and malice of the tiny clique who briefly fooled the world by presenting themselves as a near-unanimous “consensus” (as if consensus had anything to do with science) and mercilessly bullied anyone with the courage and independence of mind to question their barmy but transiently fashionable beliefs. The blog’s falsehoods have made no serious contribution to the scientific debate that we who are genuinely skeptical and truly scientific have by our patient endurance now largely won."
Monday, 3 December 2012
"The graph above provides an update to data on the remarkable ongoing US "intense hurricane drought." When the Atlantic hurricane season starts next June 1, it will have been 2,777 days since the last time an intense (that is a Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane made landfall along the US coast (Wilma in 2005). Such a prolonged period without an intense hurricane landfall has not been observed since 1900." (h/t Climate Depot)
"The science is clear: further delay would mean the opportunity to avert a global calamity would be irrevocably lost," the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a grouping of 43 countries at risk from warming-induced sea level rise, said on Monday."(Herald Sun,Australia)
ED: Its all about the MONEY
"How much global warming will result from U.S. emissions over the course of this century, and how much of that could be prevented by a carbon tax? These two questions have the same simple answer—virtually none. One or two tenths of a degree a century out with–and without–a carbon tax makes the whole climate debate a peculiar exercise. ........Any tax on carbon dioxide is clearly a case of not getting what you pay for. You will pay a lot, and receive nothing in return, or at least nothing that you will ever realize, or that could be proven."
"Climate alarmists are meeting in Doha, Qatar, to hammer out a new international treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol that expires this year. The US Environmental Protection Agency is poised to unleash its first wave of carbon dioxide regulations. And Congress is teaming up with the White House to legislate taxes on hydrocarbon use and CO2 emissions, on top of pending tax hike on “the rich.”
This serious triple threat to our energy, economy, jobs, living standards, health and welfare is justified by assertions that the actions will stabilize Earth’s climate and prevent a litany of global warming horrors.
Our planet’s climate has never been stable, and never will be. There is no empirical evidence that carbon dioxide drives climate change, or that greenhouse gases have supplanted the complex and interrelated natural forces that have produced big and little ice ages, floods and droughts, stormy and quiescent periods throughout the ages.
Even as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen from 280 parts per million before 1880 to 391 ppm (0.0391%) today, average global temperatures have flat-lined for 16 years;hurricane and tornado frequency and intensity have fallen to new lows; Antarctic sea ice continues to expand, while Arctic ice caps were reduced, not by warming, but by huge storms; and the rate of sea level rise remains steady.
.....This is not science. It is political science, rooted in a loathing of hydrocarbons, economic growth and humanity. It’s ideological, religious – the only state-sanctioned, state-supported religion permitted today.
"Turned on my TV today, and this popped up, so of course I had to write about it. This is stupidity on steroids, packaged as psuedo-scientific claptrap entertainment for the gullible. Of course they had to work in the obligatory New York City flooding scene. But what’s worse is Nat Geo’s wholesale failure to even consider basic science before making this garbage."