Implications
The table of temperature projections is the heart and soul of each voluminous IPCC Assessment Report. Climate alarm stands or falls on the credibility of that table.
Despite its customary obscurantism and spin, the IPCC has now admitted that:
• a number of its CMIP5 models seriously exaggerate future warming;
• the climate sensitivity range used for the modeled projections is too high;
• internal variability[4] is expected to significantly offset warming (for some decades);
• scientists cannot quantify the influence of sensitivity or of internal variability beyond about 2035; and
• consequently, the modeled temperature projections are unreliable.
These admissions severely dent the authority of the IPCC. But their
manner of reacting to this situation will do even greater damage to the
Panel’s credibility. The Stockholm meeting decided against the obvious
course of excluding the faulty models to obtain an ensemble of reliable
simulations. Instead, it decided to:
• replace the table of modeled projections
by an assessed table which met the “expert” opinion of participants
(the majority of whom were non-climatologists);
• publish assessments/projections which have not been subject to any form of review or comment;
• apply arbitrary and swingeing (33%) adjustments to figures which pretend to tolerances of hundredths of a degree Celsius;
• tolerate non-robust (only 50:50 confidence[5]) projections covering the next 60 years, even when they know those projections to be wrong;
• disguise its own puzzlement and internal disputation beneath a threadbare cloak of increased certainty and consensus."
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