GWPF
Another week and another explanation for the ‘pause’ in global
surface/lower atmosphere temperatures. This time it’s the return of the
‘small volcanoes add up to big effect’ explanation in the form of a
paper by Santer et al 2014
in Nature Geoscience. Could the cumulative effect from small volcanoes
be causing a reduction in sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface, and
hence a reduction in the rate of global surface warming? .....
Overall this paper shows that volcanoes are having a minor to
marginal effect, in many scenarios about the same effect as the noise in
the global temperature dataset for the past 15 years. It concludes that
the ratio of simulations of global surface temperatures to the actual
observations is about 15% smaller, even though there are large
uncertainties in the magnitude of the effect!
It is formally true that including volcanoes means the models are
more able to match the observed temperature but not that usefully. There
are so many other factors that have to be taken into account that have
uncertain effects and that are adding to the inaccuracy of the models in
explaining the ‘pause’. Despite this the Guardian says the models work,
period."
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