Paul Homewood
As he well knows, this has nothing to do with “a change to the long term trends”. If I was born in 1979 and grew till I was 19 years old, would that mean that I was simply growing more slowly now?
Even the UK Met Office acknowledged the pause in July 2013:
The start of the current pause is difficult to determine
precisely. Although 1998 is often quoted as the start of the current
pause, this was an exceptionally warm year because of the largest El
Niño in the instrumental record. This was followed by a strong La Niña
event and a fall in global surface temperature of around 0.2oC (Figure
1), equivalent in magnitude to the average decadal warming trend in
recent decades. It is only really since 2000 that the rise in global
surface temperatures has paused.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/0/Paper2_recent_pause_in_global_warming.PDF
Certainly the pause is still a short term phenomena (though getting
close to a significant length of time according to Phil Jones!) But so,
of course, was the 19 years of warming seen previously. "
No comments:
Post a Comment